BJP’s 2026 Tamil Nadu Ambitions Face Ground Realities And Alliance Challenges
Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s pronouncement in Madurai last week that the BJP would sweep to power in Tamil Nadu in the April-May 2026 Assembly election appears a little far-fetched. The party managed to win four seats in the 234-member Assembly in 2021 but drew a blank in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, despite its much-hyped poll campaign under the high-profile state BJP chief K. Annamalai.
Amit Shah’s assertion that the people of Tamil Nadu will back the BJP is based on the hope that the party’s allies in the state will deliver. The BJP, recently, stitched up an alliance with the AIADMK two years after the southern party walked out of a tie-up with the saffron party.
The AIADMK, led by Edappadi Palaniswami, is confident that it will defeat the DMK that is battling anti-incumbency amid increasing incidents of crime, drug abuse and corruption allegations. Kowtowing to EPS’ demand for the ouster of Annamalai, the BJP removed him as the state BJP chief, replacing him with Tirunelveli MLA Nainar Nagendran.
There is also uncertainty over whether the ousted AIADMK leader, O Paneerselvam, and Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam’s TTV Dhinakaran will feature in the alliance, as it will require EPS’ nod. If they are kept out, they can prove to be potential vote-splitters. The BJP’s other ally in Tamil Nadu, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), is caught in an internecine battle between father S. Ramadoss, the founder of the party, and his son Anbumani Ramadoss. .
DMDK leader Premalatha Vijaykanth is reportedly upset with the AIADMK, as her party was not given a Rajya Sabha seat. Amidst all these contradictions, the BJP cadre and AIADMK workers are not on the same wavelength, and the latter are not confident that there will be a natural transference of votes between the two parties.
AIADMK workers fear that their expected gains due to the anti-incumbency against the DMK may be negated by this tie-up with the BJP, as minority voters may drift away from the alliance. There is also actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam that is expected to make its debut in 2026. His entry into politics is an X factor for both alliances in the state.
Some of the issues that the DMK has raised against the Centre, such as withdrawal of funds under the National Education Policy for refusing to abide by the three-language formula and the proposed delimitation of constituencies on the basis of population, have found resonance among the people.
Many southern states, most prominent among them Tamil Nadu, have said the delimitation exercise will result in fewer seats for them and that they are essentially being penalised for curbing population while northern states with far less success in population control will get more seats.
Amit Shah has said there will be no reduction in seats, but Chief Minister MK Stalin remains unconvinced. For the BJP, riding on its electoral victories in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi, gains in the southern states are crucial.
Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal go to polls in 2026, and the saffron party is keen to replicate its poll successes. However, Tamil Nadu is a conundrum for which the party may not have an answer.
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