Nitish Kumar to remain NDA’s CM face in Bihar
Conscious of Bihar strongman Nitish Kumar’s indispensability to any winning strategy in the state, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has decided to contest the upcoming Assembly poll with him as the chief ministerial face.
“Nitish Kumar’s electoral base remains intact. It has not shifted even a bit. He leads and will continue to lead the NDA alliance in Bihar,” a senior BJP source said, when asked about the NDA’s CM face for the Bihar elections.
Sources further said that the JD(U) would get the seats they demand, with broad agreement that the BJP and the JDU would follow the ratio of the Lok Sabha seat arrangement, where the BJP contested 17 segments and JD(U) 16.
In the upcoming Assembly poll, the two parties are likely to get almost equal seats, with the JD(U) likely to get a seat or two more. “There could be an arrangement with 102-103 seats for the JD(U) and 101-102 for the BJP, with the rest set aside for LJP (Ram Vilas), Jitan Ram Majhi’s HAM and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM,” one of the sources said.
When asked about LJP chief Chirag Paswan’s ambitions in the state, the BJP sources said elections were an occasion for every party to test their electoral mettle and expand.
“Chirag has every right to chart his course,” a top BJP leader said, indicating that Chirag’s latest remarks about contesting the state elections had a tacit backing from the LJP’s senior alliance partner, the BJP.
Meanwhile, Chirag has himself ruled out chief ministerial ambitions in Bihar and said that if he contests the poll, it would be to further strengthen the NDA.
As for Nitish, the BJP sources pointed to the all-weather politician’s abiding voter base. Although Nitish’s own caste — Kurmis — make up just 2.87% of the population of the state, he has successfully crafted an electoral base that enables him to deliver consistent wins. He has a strong voter base among the the Kurmi-Kushwaha bloc that constitutes around 7 percent while the extremely backward class make up for about 36 percent.
The 2023 caste survey of Bihar further explained why Nitish is the key factor in all Assembly poll wins in the state. The survey put the backward class population in the state at 63.13 percent with extremely backward classes — traditional supporters of Nitish – emerging as the largest numerical population group at 36 population. Other Backward Classes constitute 27.13 percent, Scheduled Castes 19.65 percent, unreserved general categories at 15.52 percent and Scheduled Tribes at 1.68 percent.
The survey put the proportion of Muslim EBCs at 10 percent. Even if this bloc does not vote for the NDA, considering the BJP factor, Nitish Kumar still commands 33 percent voter base – seven percent Kurmis and Kushwahas and 26 percent non-Muslim EBCs.
The BJP is conscious of the fact that Nitish Kumar’s voters will not sway. The party tested Nitish’s mettle in the 2020 Assembly elections where despite clocking the lowest ever seats — 43 — Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) still had a strong 32.83 percent vote share — the same as Nitish Kumar’s dedicated voter base of 33 percent.
This winning combination explains why all major recent elections in Bihar — Assembly polls in 2010, 2015 and 2020, and Lok Sabha polls in 2009 and 2019 — were bagged by the alliance, which had Nitish Kumar on its side.
The sole exception to this firm trend was the 2014 General Election, in which the JD (U) could only secure two of the 40 seats.
Nation