Rising Lion vs True Promises fight intensifies, but endgame still far

With many first-line military leaders and top scientists killed and key military, industrial, infrastructure and energy facilities destroyed, Iran may have suffered crippling blows inflicted by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) since the launch of Operation Rising Lion in the early hours of June 13, but the fight is far from over. 

Iran’s True Promises III operation in response to the Israeli operation has surprised everyone including the US and Europe by managing to penetrate Israel’s much-touted Iron Dome air defence system as Iranian missiles have hit Tel Aviv and Haifa. 

Besides the Iron Dome, Israeli air defence comprises the David's Sling, Arrow 2, Arrow 3 and also the US Patriot systems.

While precise details are yet to come in, there are three main missiles that Iran may have used in the attacks—Emad (1,700 km range, 750 kg payload), Fattah-1 (1,400 km, 350-450 kg) and the Kheibar Shekan (1,450 km, 450-600 kg). Iran is believed to possess about 3,000 ballistic missiles including some potential hypersonic weapons.

But the key question is how much damage have the Israeli attacks been able to inflict on Iran’s nuke capability, particularly when an impending Israeli attack has been expected for the past few months. And more so because Iran is known to have built its nuclear infrastructure, installations and storage places deep under the ground in sites like Fordo and Natanz. Logic would suggest that the Iranians would have prepared for the long haul.

For the record, Israel is not known to possess the very heavy bunker busting bombs which ideally weigh about 30,000 pounds. The heaviest bomb that  Iran has weighs about 5,000 pounds.

But what could prolong the conflict with far more devastating consequences is the possible involvement of Russia and China, two powers that have been very vocal in slamming the Israeli attack.

Russia, already obligated to Iran due to the latter’s help in supply of Shahed drones for the fighting in Ukraine, will try its best to draw out the US into the open, something that Israel too is trying for.

If the US decides to be active in the fight, its resources and capability would be significantly constrained as it is already actively supporting Ukraine in the war effort against the Russians.

The conflict could turn into a prolonged one also because of Iran shedding its long held policy of strategic patience.

Also Iran’s direct involvement in the conflict will also allow its proxies like the Ansar Allah, Hezbollah and the Houthis to replenish and regroup to fight another day.

Middle East