Tricity metro project back on track, stakeholders to meet today

Conceived 13 years ago, the Chandigarh metro project is back on track with the stakeholders meeting here on Tuesday to decide the fate of this rapid transit system approved for the tricity.

A high-level committee of senior officials from Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana, which was constituted by Punjab Governor-cum-Chandigarh Administrator Gulab Chand Kataria in November 2024, will discuss the scenario analysis report (SAR) submitted by the RITES Ltd, formerly known as Rail India Technical and Economic Service Limited, a public sector undertaking and engineering consultancy corporation, specialising in the field of transport infrastructure.

The joint committee of all stakeholders from Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana was constituted to study the feasibility of the metro project thoroughly from all aspects, including CAG reports on other metro projects in the country.

The panel, which is an extension of the Chandigarh Unified Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA), a body established to oversee and improve the transportation system in the tricity region with the aim of ensuring effective public transport, coordinating various transportation agencies and promoting key transportation projects, had held two meetings here in February and January.

“M/s RITES Limited has submitted the scenario analysis report in reference to the committee’s two meetings held earlier. The report comprehensively covers various aspects of the project. These include transport demand assessment, traffic analysis zones and highway network, development and validation of the base year travel demand model, and projections of future travel demand,” a senior official told The Tribune here on Monday.

The SAR, he said, also addresses the train operation plan, power supply system, geometric design parameters, mass rapid transport system (MRTS) corridor characteristics, capital cost estimates, means of finance and assessment of operational and economic viability.

The report includes calculations of the financial internal rate of return (FIRR), economic internal rate of return (EIRR) and analysis of the economic costs and benefits of the proposed metro project.

Additionally, the report provides detailed information on operational hours, data analysis models employed, assumptions for transport demand forecasting, ridership projections and fare structure in comparison with Chandigarh Administration’s bus fares. It also includes details on track utilisation, projected usage, passenger occupancy (load factor), comparative analysis of projected versus actual ridership of other metro projects, and the fare history of the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) along with annual percentage increase.

“Accordingly, to discuss these issues and the report submitted by M/s RITES Limited, a meeting has been scheduled with all stakeholders on June 17,” he disclosed, while adding that the committee shall take a final decision and submit the report to the Chandigarh Administration for consideration.

COST OF THE PROJECT, RETURNS, FARE ON TABLE

RITES had submitted the capital cost estimates of 85.65-km two-coach metro project for three corridors under different scenarios at the February 2025 price level, excluding land cost.

Scenario G (Corridors 1, 2 & 3 elevated)) is estimated to cost Rs 23,263 crore, while Scenario G (Corridors 1, 2 & 3 underground)) is estimated at Rs 27,680 crore.

In terms of financial analysis for different scenarios, the completion cost (with Central & State taxes) till 2031, for Scenario G is projected at Rs 25,631 crore, and for Scenario G is estimated at Rs 30,498 crore.

The Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) for a 30-year period, factoring in a five-year construction period and a 25-year operation period, for Scenario G is 5.26% and for Scenario G is 4%.

Additionally, the fare structure has been outlined based on Delhi metro’s fares for 2024-25, with a 5% annual revision rate (reflecting the average inflation rate over the last seven years).

This has been compared with CTU bus fares from March 2015 and January 2020. When comparing the proposed metro fares for the operational year 2031 to the CTU estimated fare in 2030, the fare difference ranges from 1.05 to 1.75 times.

KEY ISSUES

After detailed deliberation and discussion at the last meeting held in February, the chairman had asked for clarification/justification by RITES on the following key issues.

Actual v/s projected ridership figures for metros as per the CAG report.

Operational expenses and revenues for various metros, excluding depreciation and interest on capital, and operational ratio ideally should be less than 1 for viability.

Performance of operational metros based on the reports prepared by RITES, particularly comparing actual v/s projected ridership, and the basis and reliability of RITES software modelling projections.

The conversion factor — how many people are expected to board the metro.

Estimated increase of 5% on the fare structure was found to be on the higher side and RITES was asked to re-check and further examine the actual fare increases of the DMRC in the past to arrive at some realistic fare increase.

Growth in traffic of 3% per annum was also asked to be re-examined.

PLAN CONCEIVED 13 YEARS AGO

The metro project is back on track 13 years after it was conceived and eight years after it was initially scrapped in 2017 due to low financial viability. It was re-approved in March 2023 and got formal clearance from the Punjab and Haryana governments after a Detailed Project Report (DPR) was finalised in July 2024.

Timeline of the tricity metro project

AUGUST 16, 2012: DMRC submitted DPR to the then Punjab Governor-cum-Chandigarh Administrator Shivraj Vishwanath Patil.

JULY 9, 2015: An MoU was signed between Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana and a special purpose vehicle (SPV) was created to execute the project as the Greater Chandigarh Transport Corporation (GCTC) for the development of comprehensive integrated multi-modal urban and suburban commuter system for the tricity region. The initial equity of the GCTC was fixed as Rs 100 crore, which was to be contributed equally – 25% each by the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), Chandigarh Administration, Punjab and Haryana governments.

2017: The project was scrapped due to low viability, on the ground that the rapid transit system in the tricity region would not be viable at least till 2051.

NOVEMBER 2022: It was revived when RITES was asked to re-plan the project and make it a reality for the tricity region, having a combined population of about 3 million with growing traffic congestion.

MARCH 2023: The latest proposal entails a 85.65-km network through three corridors connecting Chandigarh, Mohali and Panchkula, which was accorded in-principle approval by the Centre.

JULY 2023: Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana along with RITES cleared the project with a decision to progress after the revised detailed plan was prepared by RITES.

NOVEMBER 2024: Joint committee of Chandigarh, Punjab and Haryana constituted to study the feasibility of the metro project.

Chandigarh