US Intelligence Counters Israel, Says Iran 3 Years From Making Nukes: Report

Israel launched a military offensive against Iran last week, warning that Tehran was just months away from building a nuclear weapon. Israeli officials claimed Iran had reached the "point of no return" in its nuclear ambitions, justifying the strikes.

Since the offensive began, at least 224 people have been killed in Iran and 24 in Israel.

However, a US intelligence assessment obtained by CNN contradicted Israel's justification. It concluded that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon and remains at least three years away from producing one. A senior US official told CNN that Iran is "about as close as you can get before building (a nuclear weapon)," but emphasised that it has not crossed that line.

American officials believe the Israeli strikes may have only delayed Iran's nuclear program by a few months. Satellite imagery revealed heavy damage at Natanz, Iran's main uranium enrichment facility, and a hit on a nuclear research centre in Isfahan. But the fortified Fordow site, buried deep underground, was untouched. Defence experts told CNN that Israel lacks the capability to significantly damage Fordow without US bunker-busting munitions and aerial support.

"Israel can hover over those nuclear facilities, render them inoperable, but if you really want to dismantle them it's either a US military strike or a deal," said Brett McGurk, a former Middle East envoy under both Trump and Biden.

This presents a dilemma for the United States. President Donald Trump has publicly stated that the US will not join Israel's conflict with Iran, although he left the door open. "We're not involved. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment," Trump told ABC News on Sunday.

Nevertheless, the US is already reinforcing its military presence in the region to protect American personnel and assist in defending Israel.

Back in March, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has not revived the nuclear weapons program he halted in 2003.

Trump, however, dismissed her assessment, saying, "I don't care what she said. I think they were very close to having it."

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that Iran has amassed enough uranium to potentially make nine nuclear bombs, a development the agency called "a matter of serious concern."

When asked about the discrepancy between US and Israeli intelligence, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoided a direct answer, instead telling Fox News, "The intel we got, and we shared with the United States was absolutely clear, was absolutely clear that they were working, in a secret plan to weaponise the uranium. They were marching very quickly."

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