Acid test for India’s Look West policy

INDIA often faces unexpected foreign policy and security challenges as collateral fallout of regional conflicts or global crises. The outbreak of an all-out war between Israel and Iran threatens to undo the gains made in pursuing, in parallel, closer political, security and economic relations with the countries of West Asia and the Gulf and with Israel, even while maintaining a relatively cordial relationship with Iran.

India has displayed considerable deftness in juggling what could have been competitive relationships. Israel has become a key partner in upgrading India’s defence and security capabilities and the value of this partnership was evident in the recent military clash with Pakistan. That the key Gulf countries were themselves seeking a more collaborative relationship with Israel created an opportunity to reinforce, simultaneously, relations with all key players in India’s western neighbourhood. This includes the US, which has maintained a strong security presence in the region and serves as the last-resort guarantor.

The tacit Indo-US partnership in the Gulf is underscored by India’s participation in the I2U2 grouping, which brings together India and Israel, and the UAE and the US in what has been described as the “Quad” in the West. The US Central Command headquarters (Centcom), which is responsible for maintaining security in the West Asian and Gulf region, hosts an Indian liaison officer. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project, which would have established a transport corridor between India and the Gulf on to the port of Haifa in Israel, was based on the expectation of relative peace and stability in this region.

One must acknowledge that neither Iran nor Turkiye, both key countries in the region, have been happy about these initiatives, in which they play no role. However, India has been careful to maintain good relations with them.

This Look West policy has been successful in promoting India’s energy security, in finding expanding markets and investment sources and in ensuring the welfare of the 9 million Indians living and working in the countries of the region.

The eruption of the war in Gaza in 2023, Israel’s escalating violence and barbarity towards the Palestinian people and the revival of the Palestinian issue as a centrepiece of regional peace and stability has thrown the entire region into turmoil. While India has made proforma statements in support of the so-called two-state solution (i.e. establishing two independent sovereign states — Israel and Palestine — side by side), it has refrained from voting for UN resolutions critical of Israel. This has so far not impacted adversely its relations with Gulf and Arab states, but as Israel continues to pursue what are, unambiguously, policies of ethnic cleansing of the West Bank and Gaza, India may find it progressively difficult to sustain its current policy posture in the region.

And this has now been further complicated by Israel’s latest unprovoked attack against Iran, targeting its nuclear facilities and energy infrastructure. Iran has retaliated with its arsenal of ballistic missiles, some of which have penetrated Israeli defences and caused considerable damage and loss of life.

Israel’s initial success in being able to launch precision aerial attacks against Iranian targets at will and especially its ability to locate and assassinate virtually the entire senior leadership of Iranian revolutionary guards as well as the armed forces and several nuclear scientists, would have been deeply demoralising for Tehran. It would have also bred a mood of triumphalism and hubris among the Israelis, but they are now surprised at the ability of the Iranians to hit back with unexpected lethality.

The war is in an escalatory phase. It could spread across the region. It has already led to a spike in oil prices, a disruption in trade and transportation and could threaten the large Indian diaspora in the region. India will be paying a heavy price for Israel’s reckless action. Does the partnership with Israel override the need to safeguard our significant stake in regional peace and stability?

Why did Israel unleash this dangerous war with Iran? And what role has the US played in this? Israel would not have embarked on this so-called “Rising Lion” operation without the tacit go-ahead from the US. America has acknowledged that it was aware that this operation was being launched and that is why it ordered non-essential personnel and family members of other personnel deployed in the region to be evacuated. The US has been as determined as Israel in preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear weapon state. It is as convinced as Israel that Iran has been severely weakened by the decimation of its proxies — Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Hamas in Gaza — and the more recent fall of its ally Assad in Syria. Its close ally, Russia, is embroiled in the war against Ukraine, and China is unlikely to go beyond rhetorical support.

Several pro-Israel elements in the US have argued that this may be the best opportunity to carry out a military strike to disable Iran’s nuclear facilities and even engineer a regime change. While Israel has carried out the initial attacks, it is likely that the US will join in carrying out subsequent and more deadly attacks. It has powerful bunker-busting bombs, which Israel does not, and which could destroy the facilities buried deep underground both at Natanz and Fordow. The US and Israel believe that while Arab and Gulf countries have criticised the attacks against Iran, they would in private welcome the destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Iran has never been as weak as it today since it was engaged in an eight-year-long war with Iraq soon after the founding of the Islamic republic. It is also surprising how deeply the Israeli intelligence has been able to penetrate the highest echelons of the Iranian government. Iran is no doubt very vulnerable. However, it is a large country with a significant population. It is a civilisational state with a strong sense of identity. Its Shia character gives its people the capacity to bear pain and sacrifice that must never be underestimated. Even in its weakened state, it has been able to inflict considerable damage on Israel with its missile attacks.

For India’s long-term interests, a strong, stable and friendly Iran is an invaluable asset. Our Look West policy must reflect this reality.

Shyam Saran is former Foreign Secretary.

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