Lonely Khamenei's mental state worsens? Iran's Supreme Leader may flee the country

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's iron grip over power could be on the wane as reports suggest he is currently battling a "poor mental state". His condition is so precarious that he is not making key decisions anymore, according to reports.

 

Khamenei, who is currently hiding in a bunker in Lavizan, a city northeast of Tehran, has lost almost all his senior advisers in Israeli attacks, leaving him lonely at the top. So much so that the current senior military commanders are hiding the true reality of the war from him to manage his precarious mental state, according to Iran International. 

 

He has also been removed from key decision-making processes for the same reason. 

 

Sources familiar with Ali Khamenei's decision-making process have told Reuters that the killing of senior military and security officials in the Islamic Republic has created serious rifts within Khamenei's inner circle. This has increased the risk of strategic mistakes.

 

An unnamed individual who regularly attends meetings with Khamenei warned that the possibility of miscalculations on defence and internal stability issues would be "very dangerous" for Iran. The Islamic Republic has lost over 15 to 20 Revolutionary Guard commanders, influential clerics, and senior politicians, who were members of the advisory group headed by Khamenei.

 

The advisory group meets on an ad hoc basis and at times of important decision-making, at the invitation of the office of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic at his compound in Tehran. Members of this circle are known for their absolute loyalty to Khamenei and the country's ideology. 

 

“There are two things you can say about Khamenei: He is extremely stubborn, but he is also extremely cautious. He is very cautious. That is why he has been in power for so long," said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. "Khamenei is in a good position to conduct a basic cost-benefit analysis, which is really focused on one issue more important than anything else: the survival of the regime," he added.  

 

Meanwhile, there are reports that Khamenei's decision to delegate a significant portion of his powers to the Supreme Council of the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guard is a ploy to avoid personal responsibility for the current crisis. 

 

According to Political analyst Jaber Rajabi, this decision reflects the acceleration of events in Iran and may be taken in preparation for difficult decisions. "Khamenei does not want to take personal responsibility and may be considering fleeing, as happened with Bashar al-Assad previously. Israel will not back down and will continue to implement its plans diligently. The Iranian people have become hostages in a war that has begun. The only way to end it is for the regime to surrender and save Iran," Rajabi added,

 

He pointed out that Khamenei has proven his stubbornness and rejection of reality, and may avoid announcing any retreat himself, leaving it to the Guards.

Middle East