End of Khamenei era? Iran's elite may take over power, strike deal with US to stop Israeli attacks

A group of high-ranking officials in Iran are reportedly plotting to take over the country by sidelining Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who is currently in hiding, according to a report. This comes as Israeli attacks and US bombing of Iran's nuclear sites have weakened the Islamic Republic. 

 

The group consisting of businessmen, political and military figures, and relatives of high-ranking clerics are plotting to take over Iran's rule in the event of the 86-year-old leader's death, which some believe could happen soon. Even otherwise, he could be informally sidelined by insiders to pass real power to the temporary replacement, according to a report that appeared in The Atlantic. 

 

The plan is to form a leadership committee which could take the reins of the country and negotiate a deal with the United States to stop the Israeli attacks, the report added. The committee could consider former President Hassan Rouhani, a former diplomat and Iran's seventh president from 2013 to 2021. 

 

Though these leaders are still fearful of being discovered, they have started sending feelers to gauge regional and international response. Some of the military officials involved are reportedly in touch with their counterparts from a major Gulf country, seeking buy-in for changing Iran’s trajectory and the composition of its leadership.

 

"Tehran is now full of such plots. They are also talking to Europeans about the future of Iran. Everybody knows Khamenei’s days are numbered. Even if he stays in office, he won’t have actual power," an Iranian source told The Atlantic. 

 

After the US bombings, the group believes the chances of them succeeding in sidelining Khamenei have increased. "But we are all worried and not sure. It could also go exactly the opposite way," the Iranian source told The Atlantic. 

 

The report added that the US bombings have divided the regime. Some, including the above-mentioned group, want to negotiate peace with Trump, sidelining Khamenei, while others believe Iran must fight back. 

 

Experts like Mojtaba Dehghani believe Iran will respond with a symbolic attack, likely on U.S. bases in Iraq. This would expand the war and end in Khamenei’s downfall. This would motivate the rival factions to seize the reins and seek peace with the United States. 

 

Other geopolitical analysts too believe that Khamenei is facing "the most dire situation of his entire life as an autocrat." 

 

Karim Sadjadpour, from the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins that he cannot win this war. "He’s in a bunker. He’s 86 years old. He has limited physical, cognitive bandwidth. Most of his top military commanders were assassinated. He doesn’t control his own airspace. Israel controls it," he said. "And, you know, there’s no way out of this war. He can’t win this war. He’s outmatched militarily, financially, technologically," he added.

 

Middle East