Strait of Hormuz blockade, strikes on US Bases, or proxy escalation: What options does Iran have to retaliate after US bombs its nuclear sites?

The entry of the Unites States in the Israel-Iran conflict, which entered its 10^th day, has aggravated the tensions in the Middle East and has further pushed the region into a perpetual war. What was described by US President Donald Trump as a “spectacular military success” has been a humiliating experience for Iran which has avowed to retaliate against the US. The US targeted Iran’s most critical nuclear sites—Natanz, Fordow, and Arak, using bunker-busting bombs dropped from B-2 bombers. The strikes have prompted the Shia country to declare, in a face-saving effort, that it will take revenge on the US despite knowing that it stands nowhere before the military might of the US.

Iran’s resolve to retaliate against the US became clear when subsequent to the US attack, Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that Iran could attack the US bases in response to the strikes on its nuclear facilities. “Any country in the region or elsewhere that is used by American forces to strike Iran will be considered a legitimate target for our armed forces,” Velayati was quoted as saying on 22^nd June. However, a head-on approach with US does not appear to be the most viable option available to Iran, therefore, the country might opt for an indirect response, one of which is closing down the strait of Hormuz, which, of course comes with a huge economic cost for Iran itself. The Iranian Parliament has approved the closure of the strait of Hormuz, but the final decision will be taken by the Supreme National Security Council.

Closing down the Strait of Hormuz

The Iranian Parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision will be taken by the Supreme National Security Council. This comes after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to completely shut down the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost one-fifth of the world’s oil flows, hours after Trump confirmed the US strikes on Iran. The strait of Hormuz is one of the most significant trade routes as about one-fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.

It is a narrow sea channel between Iran and the Musandam Peninsula of Oman, connecting connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. The narrowest point in the strait is around of 30 miles wide. Completely shutting down the strait of Hormuz is easier said that done as considering its vastness. Iran controls only a part of the strait, i.e. only the northern half. The southern half is controlled by Oman. This restricts Iran’s capability to entirely shut down the route without picking fight with its neighbouring Islamic countries, which does not seem favourable to Iran in the current scenario. Besides, the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain maintains a permanent presence in the region with the aim of the Fleet is to prevent such disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

US bases and assets in the region

Another option before Iran is to target the US military bases and assets in the region, which comes with the possibility of further and more aggressive US military action. The US has assets and military bases in around 19 locations in different countries in the Middle East. It has stationed more than 40,000 troops on its bases and warships in the region, falling under the US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM). The US forces are majorly concentrated in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, and the UAE. Iranian officials have reportedly warned the Gulf States that the US military bases and assets on their territory could be targeted.

Bahrain: This US military base is the headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet at Mina Salman in Bahrain. It houses America’s four anti-mine vessels and two logistical support ships. The country also has the US Coast Guard vessels. The US has been using the base since 1948, when it was operated by the British Royal Navy. However, Iran might be reluctant to directly target this US Navy base and might instead target other relatively isolated US bases in Iraq or Syria using its proxies there.

Qatar: America’s largest military base, Al Udeid Air Base, lies in Qatar. The air base reportedly accommodates the forward components of CENTCOM, its air forces and the special operation forces in the region. It also houses the rotating combat aircraft of the US, along with 379th Air Expeditionary Wing. 

Iraq: This Middle-Eastern country houses various US troop installations, including the Al Asad Air Base in Al-Anbar Governorate and Al Harir Air Base in Erbil. Notably, Iraq is an American ally since 2003 and Iran’s arch rival. Around 25,000 US troops in Iraq as part of the international coalition against the Islamic State jihadist group. The Al Asad Air Base was targeted by Iran in 2020 after eliminating Quds Force leader Qasem Soleimani. The Al Harir Air Base has also been attacked in the past by Iran’s proxies.

Syria: Several US military installations have existed in Syria for years as part of international efforts against the Islamic State group. The Al Tanf Garrison of the US is located in southern Syria, close to the borders of Iraq and Jordan. 

Kuwait: Many US bases are present in Kuwait, including the Ali al-Salem Air Base, around 20 miles away from Iraq’s border. The air base accommodates the members of the US Air Force’s 386th Air Expeditionary Wing. It acts as a primary centre for airlifting and delivering combat power to joint and coalition forces in the region. Camp Arifjan, which is the forward headquarters for the US Army component of CENTCOM, is located in this airbase.

UAE: US’s Al Dhafra Air Base is located in the UAE. It houses US Air Force’s 380th Air Expeditionary Wing, which operates F-22 Raptor fighter jets and several types of surveillance planes and drones, including MQ-9 Reapers. It also hosts Gulf Air Warfare Centre for air and missile defence training.

A direct attack on the US assets of bases not appear to be preferred strategy of Iran to avenge the US attacks on its soil, considering the disparities in the military strengths of the two countries. In such a situation, it is possible that Iran might use asymmetric warfare tactics against the US.

Iran’s asymmetric war tactics

Iran’s Axis of Resistance, which a network of terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis, formed with the intention of reducing the influence of the US and Israel in the region might have been weakened due to Israeli military action, but it still holds some capacity to cause disturbance in the region. Israel’s military action following the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack eliminated the key leaders of Hezbollah as well as Hamas, significantly reducing their strength. However, Houthis in Yemen can pose a threat in the Red Sea. Iran also reportedly had links with Shiite proxy groups in Iraq, which have targeted the US assets in the region in the past.

The asymmetric warfare tactics are part of Iraq’s ‘forward deterrence’ policy which is backed by the Iranian regime under the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said in 2019 that Iran should not limit itself to borders and should recognise and confront threats beyond its walls. Under this strategy, Iran created proxies in the region, including non-state actors, armed groups, criminal networks, to indirectly target its rivals, similar to what Pakistan does with respect to India.

Despite the meek possibility of Iran directly attacking the US with its current military strength, not retaliating might make the Iranian regime look weak, which it would not want. In such a situation, asymmetric warfare might be the preferrred option of the Iranian regime to avenge the US strikes on its soil.

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