Congress reduced to AAP’s “B Team”, BJP’s infighting, and Gujarat’s shifting ground: What the Visavadar, Kadi by-polls reveal
The outcomes of the by-elections for two assembly seats in Gujarat have been announced. Aam Aadmi Party candidate Gopal Italia has emerged victorious from the Visavadar assembly seat, whereas Bharatiya Janata Party candidate Rajendra Chavda has claimed victory from the Kadi assembly seat. The performance of Congress has been notably poor in both constituencies. Italia secured his win with a margin of 17,554 votes while Chavda did the same with a lead of 39,452 votes.
The circumstances were different in each constituency, which accounts for the disparity in the results. These outcomes reflect the saffron party’s stronghold in Gujarat, while also shedding light on the AAP-Congress alliance. Clearly, the public is often reluctant to accept a new party, but the Aam Aadmi Party has managed to gain their approval, largely due to the support of Congress party. Additionally, there is a discussion around Congress being perceived as the “B team” for AAP.
Visavadar assembly results
The Visavadar Assembly seat became vacant following the resignation of the former AAP MLA, Bhupat Bhayani. During the by-election for this seat, all three parties BJP, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party nominated their candidates. Nevertheless, the grand old party’s inactivity was also evident in this constituency.
Its performance in the Visavadar elections was significantly lacking. The candidate from Congress, Nitin Ranparia, garnered only 5501 votes. It clearly demonstrated that the party destroyed its former stronghold. Furthermore, its campaign was minimal, there was no effective leadership at the regional level and the public also begun to view other parties as alternatives to Congress.
Nevertheless, as the oldest political party in the country, it is natural to expect that Congress would have a better foothold in the local area compared to other parties, however, the reality in Visavadar was quite the opposite.
The state of Congress is so dire that it has lost its deposit. This constituency was previously regarded as a bastion of Congress, but it now finds itself in a position of stagnation. Moreover, not just in Visavadar, but Congress is currently diminishing in credibility and influence throughout the entire state. The situation have escalated to the point where Gujarat Congress President Shaktisinh Gohil has acknowledged defeat and stepped down from his role.
In today’s political landscape, when a party like the Aam Aadmi Party enters the electoral contest, the oldest party, Congress, must take responsibility for its own downfall if it lacks a strategy or vision. It is evident that Congress effectively ceded the ground to AAP in Visavadar, as if it were its “B team.” Its lackadaisical stance towards AAP could have also served as an important factor in shaping the election results.
Congress did not campaign vigorously in this region nor did it address local concerns. Consequently, Congress completely failed to engage Patidar voters in Visavadar, who were drawn to Gopal Italia. This indicated that the country’s oldest political party capitulated to the newest one. Another contributing factor was the absence of workers within Congress. Other than the 5-7 individuals accompanying the candidate, it had no local workers, which led to a deteriorating situation in the election.
This inability to act can be likened to political suicide, which raises concerns about the party’s future in the state. Furthermore, it is important to mention that the Aam Aadmi Party and Congress have historically accused each other of being the BJP’s “B team.” Leaders from both parties often invoked the BJP while attacking each other. Gopal Italia also referred to Congress as the BJP’s “B team.” However, in light of these results, it is clear that Congress is, in reality, AAP’s “B team.”
Internal strife and candidate dispute leads to BJP’s loss
The loss of the BJP in Visavadar has certainly become a focal point of discussion in the state’s political arena. While this seat has not been a traditional stronghold for the BJP as they did not win it in the past either, but it presented an opportunity for progress. The opposition has consistently dominated this seat since 2012 and AAP’s prior victory bolstered its local organization.
Nevertheless, the primary factor contributing to the BJP’s loss was internal discord and poor candidate selection. The decision to field Kirit Patel led to dissatisfaction among local BJP members, which was apparent during the campaign. A massive number of voters from the Patidar community were drawn to Gopal Italia in this constituency.
Moreover, the Jawahar Chavda factor had been pivotal in the BJP’s defeat. He holds considerable influence at the local level and attempts to exclude him might have adverse effects. Furthermore, the candidate Kirit Patel had previously defeated the BJP in two elections. There was also discontent among the local workers regarding the selection, which was reflected in the campaign. Nevertheless, the BJP refrained from blaming the EVM following this defeat, showcasing its political maturity.
BJP leader Rishikesh Patel stated that the party will conduct an internal review of this defeat and will work on improvements for the future. This is the sole aspect that sets it apart from other political parties. Other parties are unwilling to acknowledge their defeats and instead begin to criticize the government, the Election Commission and the EVM.
In contrast, BJP refrains from such actions. This mature conduct was evident during the Lok Sabha elections as well. On the other hand, the success of Gopal Italia has infused new vigor into the party. However, this victory can also be attributed to the internal conflicts within BJP and the indecisiveness of Congress.
BJP wins in Kadi as party continue to dominate Gujarat
The triumph Rajendra Kumar Chavda by a margin of 39,452 votes in Kadi has solidified the party’s dominant status in the state. This victory indicated that the BJP’s influence in Gujarat remains robust and its organizational foundation is still intact. The selection of Chavda, regarded as a veteran leader of the Jan Sangh, enabled the BJP to strengthen its support among traditional voters. The polling rate of 57.51% demonstrated that the BJP’s campaign sparked excitement among the electorate.
The BJP campaigned on the themes of development, industrialization and farmers in Kadi, which resonated with both urban and rural voters. Rishikesh Patel characterized the victory as a ‘people’s victory’, suggesting that the BJP interprets the outcome as a confirmation of its popularity. The AAP and Congress candidates did not mount a significant challenge against the BJP, reflecting the weak opposition presence in Kadi. Aam Aadmi Party candidate Jagdishbhai Ganpatbhai Chavda was able to obtain just 3090 votes.
Now, the loss in Visavadar will compel the BJP to reassess its strategies. It must concentrate on new challenges and leadership to tackle internal conflicts and the grievances of local leaders. However, the substantial win in Kadi indicates that the BJP’s popularity and organizational capabilities are still as formidable as ever and will persist.
BJP now in better positions than in 2022
Now if we talk about the entire state, the defeat in Visavadar elections has not caused any harm to the BJP. The reality is that today the BJP is more successful with more seats than the it had in the 2022 assembly elections. As for Visavadar, as previously mentioned, that seat was not in the possession of the BJP before, thus the issue of loss is not applicable. Additionally, let us examine the outcomes of the 2022 assembly elections in relation to the present situation.
The BJP accomplished a historic feat by winning 156 seats out of a total of 182, in the 2022 assembly elections. Meanwhile, Congress obtained 17 seats and the Aam Aadmi Party garnered 5 seats. Additionally, the Samajwadi Party won one seat, while independent candidates took over 3 seats. The BJP established the government following its unprecedented achievement.
When we examine the current circumstances, the BJP possesses 162 seats in the assembly, whereas Congress has fallen to 12. The Aam Aadmi Party has successfully preserved its position by winning in Visavadar. To summarize, the BJP has augmented its assembly seats by 6 from 2022 to 2025, indicating a strong presence and influence in the state. Thus, the BJP’s defeat in the Visavadar by-election does not pose a threat, as that seat was not with BJP’s earlier. The party has added 6 more seats to its tally.
Read the report in Gujarati here.
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