Maoist retreat

Deepak Dwivedi

SECURITY forces in Chhattisgarh recently achieved an unprecedented success by eliminating Nambala Keshav Rao, alias Basavaraju, the top leader in the Maoist organisational hierarchy, in the dense forests of Bastar. His loss comes at a critical juncture of nearly six decadeslong Left-wing extremism, which is battling for its survival. A decade ago, the Maoist organisation had an incredible and violent presence over as much as one-third of Indian territories, jeopardising development and governance in nearly half a dozen states.

Statistics bear the truth. Take the case of spatial spread. From dominating a third of territories (223 districts) in 2011-12, the Maoist dominance has reduced to just 18 districts. According to a recent statement by Home Minister Amit Shah, however, it is restricted to merely six districts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, and Telangana. In every sense, Chhattisgarh, especially the Bastar region, remains the last stronghold of the Maoist organisation. This also appears to be slipping out of their control now.

In the past one and a half years, the combined security forces (Centre and states) have captured many strongholds controlled by the Maoists. That security forces can so easily outmanoeuvre Maoists in their safe haven (Abujhmad, a forested and heavily mined area) was unthinkable until a few years ago. With Chhattisgarh forces eliminating Basavaraju – under Operation Black Forest in the Abujhmad region – it is a matter of time before their last recognised fortress falls.

Beyond losing vast territories and key bases, Maoists have suffered massive losses in terms of hundreds of hardcore fighters being eliminated through sustained countermeasures mounted by the security forces. In 2024, while a record 296 Maoists were killed, the security forces lost only 21 personnel in the combat operation. This was the highest yearly fatalities suffered by the rebels since 2009. However, if the fatality figures are to be believed, 2025 is likely to surpass the records of all previous years. The Maoist fatality figures are close to 300 in just five months of this year. Notably, the military prowess of the Maoist organisation has weakened significantly.

This can be attributed to the elimination of many of its top leaders in quick succession. Out of the 40 Central Committee and Politburo members, only 16 are alive today. After Basavaraju’s killing, the security forces eliminated Narasimha Chalam alias Sudhakar and Bhaskar alias Mailarapu Adella, a Special Zonal Committee member from Telangana state. This alarming thinning of top leadership has hugely demoralised the Communist Party of India (Maoist) organisation. This is reflected in a staggering number of ultras having surrendered in recent years and a drastic fall in fresh recruitments.

While military victory looks imminent, what comes next is equally challenging. Post-conflict measures are vital to deny its re-emergence as it did in the previous cycles. It may be remembered that the Left-wing insurgency thrived in a vast region characterised by extreme poverty, lack of governance, widespread land alienation, and exploitation. Although the Centre and affected states have done well in improving connectivity through a slew of infrastructure projects in Bastar and adjoining areas – apart from delivering on welfare goods – they are grossly inadequate to transform the structural conditions that breed d alienation and tribal disaffection.

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