The Nuclear Shadow: Israel-Iran Ceasefire and the Race for Weapons

Israel-Iran war: After coming back to the White House with promises to stop global conflicts, U.S. President Donald Trump has now managed to bring about a ceasefire. He couldn’t stop the war between Russia and Ukraine and allowed Israel to end the Gaza ceasefire and restart fighting.But on Tuesday,24th June, he succeeded in ending Israel’s attack on Iran.

Trump’s attempt to stop a war that could have spread to other countries and affected global energy supplies was a welcome step, even though it came late. In the beginning, he had supported Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to start the war and even joined in for a short while with strong action. But when Iran responded carefully to the U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear sites—by attacking a U.S. base in Qatar—Trump used that moment to declare success and shift focus to other issues.

However, this ceasefire is very fragile and could break at any time. The hatred between Israel and Iran has only grown stronger after 12 days of fighting. Iran, which was already weaker in military power and has been deeply infiltrated by Israeli spies, has suffered major losses. Many of its senior military leaders were killed, its air defence systems were destroyed, nuclear sites were bombed, and hundreds of civilians lost their lives. Despite this, Iran kept launching missiles at Israel during the conflict. Some of these missiles managed to hit their targets, killing 28 people and causing serious damage.

Netanyahu says his goals for the war were achieved. But his main aim—to completely destroy Iran’s large nuclear program—was likely only partly successful, showing that starting the war may have been a mistake. A temporary U.S. intelligence report says Iran’s nuclear program may have been delayed by just a few months, even though Trump ordered massive bunker-busting bombs to hit Iran’s main nuclear sites. Also, no one knows where Iran’s 400 kg stockpile of uranium—enriched close to weapons-grade—has been moved.

The big risk now is that Israel’s attacks could push Iran to hide its nuclear program even deeper and convince its leaders that they need to build nuclear weapons to protect themselves. Iran’s parliament has already voted to stop working with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is the group that keeps an eye on its nuclear activities.

Another concern is that Israel, feeling confident and unchecked, might carry out more attacks on its own if it believes there’s a threat—just like it has been doing almost every day against Hezbollah in Lebanon, even though both sides had agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire back in November.

A lot now depends on what Trump does next. This crisis began during his first term, when he decided to pull the U.S. out of the 2015 nuclear deal that Iran had signed with major world powers. Iran only started increasing its uranium enrichment about a year after Trump walked away from that agreement.

In his second term, Trump promised to bring peace to the Middle East. But instead, he allowed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to continue harsh attacks on Gaza and supported him when he decided to launch strikes against Iran.

If Trump wants the ceasefire to last, he will need to put pressure on both Israel and Iran. He should focus on using diplomacy to find a lasting solution to the nuclear issue. Trump must also push Netanyahu to stop the war in Gaza if there’s any hope of bringing peace and stability back to the region.

At the same time, Iran needs to restart its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and avoid trying to build nuclear weapons. According to the Financial Times, the best way forward for Iran is to accept a deal led by Trump. This would help Iran avoid becoming isolated like North Korea and protect its long-term interests.

When Trump announced the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, he called it “the 12-day war,” possibly drawing a comparison to the famous Six-Day War of 1967. Back then, Israel captured large areas of Arab land—some of which it still controls—and is also believed to have started secretly working on nuclear weapons after that conflict. The impact of that war still causes tension in the region even today.

Trump now has a responsibility to make sure that this recent conflict doesn’t leave behind the same kind of long-lasting problems and instability in the Middle East.

(The author, Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is also the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. Contact: girishlinganna@gmail.com )

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