Will Palaniswami be able to lead the NDA in Tamil Nadu?

At a time when the AIADMK is struggling hard to control the image damage caused by the video clip played at the lord Murugan conference organised by the Hindu Munnani, Union Home Minister Amit Shah dropped yet another googly on Friday.
In an interview with a daily newspaper, Amit Shah asserted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will form the government in Tamil Nadu after the 2026 Assembly elections with BJP being part of it.
“The NDA alliance of the BJP and the AIADMK is going to form a government in Tamil Nadu next year,” Shah said. To yet another question he said the Chief Minister candidate will be from the AIADMK, but did not name its general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami. Amit Shah’s comments saying 'NDA government' and 'AIADMK CM candidate' have kicked up a row at a time when the AIADMK is trying hard to place itself as a ‘secular’ party.
Shah’s statement assumes significance as Tamil Nadu, since 1967 has not witnessed a coalition government. The people of the state have always given a massive mandate ensuring there is a majority government, except for in 2006 when the DMK won with the support of the Congress, but ran its own government. Shah’s statement confirming that the NDA wants to be in power in Tamil Nadu has raised speculation that the BJP will be sharing power, even when the AIADMK leads the alliance.
On the other side, while indicating that the Chief Minister will be from AIADMK, Shah stopped short of naming Palaniswami, stirring yet another row in the alliance. The AIADMK which was allegedly arm-twisted to get into the NDA, after a brief break in 2023-2024, seems to be struggling hard to defend that it will form a majority government on its own.
AIADMK general secretary Palansiwami who is all set to sound the poll bugle through his statewide tour on July 7 from Coimbatore will now have to defend his stands and clarify that AIADMK is not for coalition government. Palaniswami faces obstacles not just within the alliance, quite apart from the loud speculation in political circles about how much the BJP has to do with his troubles, as most of the second rank leaders of the party have already sided with the BJP.
Palaniswami’s lieutenant and former minister S.P. Velumani was recently seen at the RSS centenary celebration event presenting a silver spear to RSS leader Mohan Bhagwat. Velumani clarified saying that he went to felicitate one of the pontiffs from Coimbatore. However, his brother S.P. Anbarasan is part of the ‘Sengol Governance Awareness Committee’ created by the BJP under the supervision of RSS.
The committee has been formed to promote Modi and his governance in Tamil Nadu in the run-up to the election. Anbarasan, known to be a businessman in Coimbatore is part of this committee which has Nainar Nagenthiran’s close confidants Neelmurali Yadav, Gopalsamy (ex-AIADMK MLA who is now in the BJP), the Maharashtra Governor’s son Hari Radhakrishnan, Nainar Nagendran’s son Sri Nainar Balaji, and BJP functionaries like Vasantharajan and Selvadurai as its members. Former ABVP leader Rahul Raja is the coordinator of the committee.
The inner and tricky understandings like this between the AIADMK second-rank leaders, BJP and the RSS may not help the Dravidian party to be the decision-making big brother in the alliance, like in 2021.
However, this is not the first time Shah has hinted at a coalition government in the state after the 2026 Assembly elections. On June 8, when in Madurai, Shah said that NDA would form the government and also on April 11, when he declared the alliance with Palaniswami sitting beside him, Shah hinted that it would be a coalition government.
India