Beijing’s worst fear? Dalai Lama likely to outline a succession plan ahead of 90th birthday

As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday on Sunday, July 6, he is expected to make a significant statement ahead of the occasion—one that could present a serious challenge to China. While many will celebrate the event with religious fervor, the Chinese government will not, for several reasons.

Often regarded as the unifying force of Tibetan identity, the Dalai Lama is expected to outline his plans for succession by continuing the legacy. He will address a major three-day gathering of Buddhist religious leaders this week, which will be attended by over 100 Tibetan Buddhist figures and include a video message from him.

While the entire world will watch closely, China will be particularly alert to any announcement related to his reincarnation. Beijing views the Dalai Lama as a separatist and has long insisted that it should control the process of selecting his successor. Any declaration from the spiritual leader may directly counter China’s attempts to dominate the succession process.

The Dalai Lama has made it clear that the centuries-old institution will continue after his death—and that China will have no role in appointing the 15th Dalai Lama. On June 2, he officially stated that the Gaden Phodrang Trust, his administrative body, will solely be responsible for recognizing the next reincarnation.

Decision taken from archieve

Dolma Tsering Teykhang, Deputy Speaker of the Tibetan Parliament-in-Exile in Dharamshala, stressed the importance of hearing directly from the Dalai Lama, stating: “China tries to vilify him at every opportunity while framing rules and regulations to manipulate the reincarnation process for its own political interests.” She added, “China is trying to grab this institution for political gain.”

This position is not new. Back on September 24, 2011, he had announced that the responsibility for deciding the future of the institution lies with the Gaden Phodrang Trust. He also noted that when he turns 90, he would consult senior Tibetan lamas, the Tibetan public, and followers of Tibetan Buddhism worldwide to reconsider whether the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue.

Tibetan buddhist (Image source- Pexel)

The Dalai Lama remains a global symbol of peace and nonviolence, with a moral standing comparable to leaders like Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr. However, his enduring influence has long unsettled China.

Beijing fears that a new Dalai Lama, outside its control, could revive separatist sentiments in Tibet. To prevent this, the Chinese government aims to orchestrate the reincarnation process to install a compliant spiritual figure—one that will align with state interests and help tighten its grip over Tibet.

Yet, the current Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, has stated unequivocally that any successor appointed by the Chinese state will not be recognized by the Tibetan people. He has consistently emphasized that he does not seek independence but rather meaningful autonomy within China. His approach to reincarnation is aimed at preserving Tibetan Buddhist culture and values.

In his recently released book, Voice for the Voiceless (March 2025), the Dalai Lama revealed that his successor would likely be born outside China, in a free country. This implies the next Dalai Lama could come from among the roughly 140,000 Tibetan exiles, half of whom live in India.

Global times- a mouthpeice of china

Meanwhile, China’s state-run newspaper Global Times—often seen as a government mouthpiece—has dismissed the Dalai Lama’s spiritual authority. It argues that the reincarnation of “Living Buddhas” is not solely a religious matter but one tied to national sovereignty, government control, and public sentiment. The publication insists that government oversight is essential and that the final approval of any reincarnated lama must rest with the central government.

Despite his international acclaim and influence, China continues to brand the Dalai Lama as a separatist and a “wolf in monk’s robes.” It repeatedly asserts that it holds the exclusive right to approve any successor, citing national law.

Having fled to India in 1959 after a failed uprising against Chinese rule, the Dalai Lama has remained a thorn in Beijing’s side. For China, control over his succession is about more than religion—it’s about asserting political dominance and consolidating authority over Tibet.

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