Why RJD would refrain from allying with Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM in Bihar

Months ahead of the Bihar assembly elections, Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM has reached out to Mahagathbandhan for alliance. However the RJD has been dismissive about any prospects with the AIMIM.

“The consideration on Lalu Yadav-led party is that bringing AIMIM into the alliance would send a signal that the RJD has accepted Owaisi as the political voice of Muslims,” an expert explained. “If that perception percolates, Muslim voters may slowly drift away from the RJD, further eroding its electoral base.”

The RJD has been particular about Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote bank and there is a thinking within that it would not want any additional leader to emerge from the two communities challenging their predominance and eventually dividing the two core constituencies away from the party.

Yet, a section also believes that if AIMIM joins hands with the Mahagathbandhan, the chances of vote-splitting diminish significantly. A political observer in Bihar remarked, “In Seemanchal, where AIMIM has a strong foothold, a united front would leave little room for other parties to make inroads.”

In the 2020 assembly elections in Bihar, AIMIM won five seats in the Seemanchal belt, drawing substantial votes from the M-Y combine that traditionally supports the RJD. Although four of AIMIM's MLAs later defected to the RJD, the damage in 2020 assembly was seen to have impeded the Mahagathbandhan from forming the government.

Owaisi’s politics is often seen as collaborative, with opposition accusing it of helping the BJP by splitting Muslim votes. The RJD, according to party insiders, would prefer to consolidate its traditional vote-base than experiment with parties like AIMIM that attract controversy.

India