What’s Driving Markets Next Week: India-US Trade Talks, Tariff Deadline, Oil Prices, And More
Equity markets are heading into a crucial week as the deadline for the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump approaches. With the suspension period ending on July 9, market analysts suggest that the outcome of trade negotiations between India and the United States could significantly sway investor sentiment, especially in sectors closely tied to global trade.
A favourable outcome on the trade front may boost market confidence and benefit export-oriented industries such as IT, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles, reported PTI. Conversely, a lack of resolution could weigh on broader sentiment, making this week pivotal not just for Indian equities but for global markets as well.
Tariff Deadline, FOMC Minutes, And Q1 Earnings
The upcoming release of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on July 9 will also be closely watched by investors for cues on future monetary policy direction. “The most anticipated event is the outcome of the US trade (tariff) deadline on July 9, which could shape global trade dynamics. Investors will also closely monitor the release of the US FOMC minutes on the same day,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
On the domestic front, corporate earnings will begin to take centre stage. IT giant Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Avenue Supermarts are scheduled to kick off the Q1 earnings season, providing early insight into the financial health of Indian corporates. "Considering the broader indices currently trading at elevated levels, the market participants will closely watch for signs of earnings catch-up from upcoming Q1—starting this week," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.
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Foreign Investors And Oil Prices
Investors will also keep an eye on global oil prices, currency movements, and foreign investment trends. “Resumption of FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) buying will hinge on two things: One, if a trade deal happens between India and US that will be positive for markets and FII flows; two, Q1 FY26 result indications. If the results indicate earnings recovery, that will be positive. Disappointment on these factors can impact the market and, thereby, FII flows,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
Last week, Indian equities ended on a subdued note, with the BSE Sensex falling 626.01 points or 0.74 per cent, and the NSE Nifty losing 176.8 points or 0.68 per cent. According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, “Overall, we expect the market to remain in consolidation mode, awaiting clarity on the India-US trade deal; while stock specific action would continue on the back of Q1 FY26 business updates ahead of the earnings season starting this week.”
As investors prepare for potential volatility, all eyes remain on the upcoming trade decisions and initial earnings reports to shape the market trajectory.
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