The big bet on Indian space tech: Boom or bubble?

AFEW days ago, my inbox pinged with something heavier than the equations I juggle daily. It was a note from Manu J Nair, CEO of Ethereal X, a rising Indian space startup. One line hit me hard: “We are building rockets and systems that may never get a second chance to fail." That sentence hasn’t let go of me since.

As a physicist, I usually deal with abstract ideas —things like how gravity bends space, how time moves forward and how the tiniest bits of the universe behave. Even my dog Simba, who treats alarm clocks like competition, reminds me daily that not everything in life can — or should — be simulated.

But Nair’s words yanked me out of abstraction and back to Earth — and beyond. They were a jolt of reality: in space, there are no trial runs. No do-overs. No Ctrl+Z. Every launch is a one-shot final exam. And right now, India isn’t just preparing for that exam — it’s rewriting the syllabus.

From ‘Mission Mode’ to Market Mode: We’ve moved beyond celebrating Mangalyaan or Chandrayaan as once-in-a-decade achievements.

Today, over 200 space startups are buzzing across India — from Bengaluru to Bhubaneswar — each dreaming of placing India not just in orbit, but also in the global value chain of space commerce. This isn’t just about reaching Mars anymore. This is about markets. The dream? An Indian space economy that builds satellites, launches constellations, manages in-orbit servicing and sells Earth observation data as a service.

It’s a seismic shift — from state-led prestige projects to startup-led industrial growth. But here’s the question that matters: Is this a true lift-off or just another economic Icarus waiting to burn out?

Déjà vu: Remember the dot-com boom? There’s a familiar excitement in the air — like the dot-com boom of the 1990s, but this time without the “.com." Back then, adding the word “internet" to a business plan was often enough to attract millions in funding. But many of those companies crashed and burned just as fast. Today, “space" seems to be the new magic word.

Startup pitch decks promise AI-driven rockets, moon logistics hubs and data centres in zero gravity — all ready by next year. Some founders come from software or fintech backgrounds, where bugs can be fixed with updates.

But space doesn’t work like that. You can’t patch a rocket once it’s in flight. Satellites don’t get software updates. A solar array in orbit can’t be rebooted. A tiny thermal miscalculation at 60 kilometres above Earth won’t just cause failure — it could wipe out years of work and billions in investment. As Manu Nair put it, “This isn’t software. It’s survival engineering."

The good news? India isn’t starting from zero. ISRO has spent decades quietly building the backbone of our space programme — launch pads, cryogenic engines, deep-space tracking systems, and a world-class talent pool. And now, through IN-SPAC112233e (the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre), the government is opening these resources to private companies. Startups now have access to the same infrastructure that powered Chandrayaan. It’s a strategy similar to what NASA did in the early 2000s, when it partnered with private players like SpaceX through performance-based contracts —and changed launch economics forever.

India has a chance to follow that path. But there’s one key principle we must uphold: access must come with accountability. Just because you can test at Sriharikota doesn’t mean you are launch-ready. Every grant, every facility, every payload opportunity must come with clear expectations and strict standards. In this field, even one loose wire can cost us our credibility on the global stage.

We can’t go it alone — and that’s okay: Space is global. Satellites rely on US-made semiconductors, European solar panels, Japanese composites and international insurance. A ‘make-everything-in-India’ mindset sounds patriotic, but it is completely impractical. The government seems to understand this. The IN-SPACe 2025-2035 roadmap targets an 8 per cent slice of the global space economy by 2035, prioritising propulsion tech, miniaturised satellites and reusable launch vehicles. That’s not a dream. It’s a strategy.

What we now need is execution that matches the ambition. That means fostering international joint ventures, co-developing hardware with space veterans, licensing IP when needed and resisting the temptation to reinvent wheels already spinning in orbit elsewhere.

Truth bomb: most startups will fail — and that’s fine; let’s call it what it is: most of these 200+ space startups will crash back to Earth. That’s not a bug — it’s a feature. Space is a crucible. It purifies by fire. The companies that survive will do three things exceptionally well: Go deep, not wide. Focus on one system — whether it’s propulsion, avionics or deployable structures — and become the best at it. Find your first real customer. Whether it’s the Indian Army or a climate monitoring agency, early anchor clients are gold. Operate lean, think big. Bootstrapping doesn’t mean small thinking. It means obsessing over every component, cost and contingency.

The Indian government must also evolve — from being a cheerleader to a tough customer. No more warm handshakes. We need rigorous procurement. Competitive benchmarking. Failure audits. And yes, kill switches for non-performing grants.

Investors, too, must wake up. Space is not fintech. You need inhouse scientists, not just analysts. Space tech due diligence isn’t about TAM and CAGR. It’s about delta-v, radiation hardening and orbital debris modelling.

Space has always been a metaphor for human ambition. But here, for India, it’s something more: it’s a test of our seriousness. We have the talent, the tech base and the policy tailwinds. What we lack is discipline. Not passion, not vision, but discipline. The kind that obsesses over vacuum testing, component fatigue and redundancy protocols. The kind that treats each launch as sacred. The kind that understands that you don’t “scale" rockets – you earn every inch of lift-off.

So yes, India’s space economy may look like a boom. But whether it becomes a bubble or a blueprint for the next century depends on the choices we make now. The countdown has begun. And in space, as we know, you only get one shot.

Nishant Sahdev is a physicist at the University of North Carolina, US.

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