With Bihar Assembly polls around corner, will Congress change Siddaramaiah from Karnataka CM post?

Once again, Karnataka's power tussle has landed in the Congress high command’s court in Delhi. Speculations over a leadership change in the state began soon after Chief Minister Siddaramaiah was inducted into the AICC’s 24-member OBC Advisory Council. The move was seen as an effort to pull Siddaramaiah into national politics and pave the way for new leadership in the state.

 

Going by Deputy Chief Minister Shivakumar’s own admission, there is a 50-50 power-sharing formula in place, and Siddaramaiah completes two and a half years as the chief minister in November this year. Both Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister Shivakumar rushed to Delhi, but on different days and boarded different flights too.

 

The timing of their visit is sure to ruffle a few feathers as AICC’s Karnataka in-charge Randeep Singh Surjewala was in the state capital on his second visit to hold a closed-door meeting with the party legislators. The stated agenda was to take feedback on the implementation of the five guarantee schemes, utilisation in their constituencies and the performance of the Siddaramaiah cabinet.

 

The buzz was that it was an exercise by the high command to gauge the mood within the party over an impending leadership change. On both his visits, Surjewala categorically denied there was any discussion on the change of leadership in the state.

 

After all action shifted to Delhi, the CM and DCM met a couple of Central ministers to discuss projects related to the state. Ahead of his meeting with AICC chief Mallikarjun Kharge, party leaders K.C. Venugopal and Surjewala, Siddaramaiah chose to address a press meet at Karnataka Bhavan, as though to set the stage for the discussions that were to follow.

 

“There is no vacancy for the CM’s post. Mr Shivakumar has himself told this many times. Now, where is the question of a tussle between us? I will complete a full term of five years as the chief minister. Surjewala has categorically stated there are no talks of any leadership change in the state,” said Siddaramaiah.

 

When the reporters asked pointed questions about the much-talked-about secret power-sharing formula, and the legislators openly demanding that Shivakumar be made the CM, Siddaramaiah gave a strong message to his detractors, yet not ruling out a secret pact.

 

“No such agreement has been made. At the time of the government formation, Shivakumar and I were contenders for the CM post. Mr Sushil Kumar Shinde, former chief minister of Maharashtra, conducted the polls to pick the chief minister in Karnataka. The result was not declared, but I had won the election. The high command told me I had won, and I am now the chief minister. The only thing the high command told us was to abide by the high command’s decision at all times. Even now, I reiterate that I will go by the decision of the high command. Shivakumar also should abide by the high command decision," said Siddaramaiah.

 

"There are one or two supporters demanding a change, but it is their individual opinion and not the party's decision. Has Kharge, Surjewala or K.C. Venugopal spoken about a leadership change?" asked Siddaramaiah. 

 

On the question of who would lead the party in the 2028 Assembly elections, Siddaramaiah gave a cryptic reply that whoever led the party in the 2023 elections would do it in 2023, though the debate on who led the party to a thumping win in 2023 – the mass leader Siddaramaiah or the master strategist Shivakumar, remains to be settled.   

 

Siddaramaiah, who is serving his second term as the chief minister, downplayed Shivakumar’s claim to chief ministership by saying there were also “other aspirants” for the chief minister’s post in the party.

 

The veteran’s statements have certainly stumped even a seasoned politician like Shivakumar, who has resisted many attempts by the Siddaramaiah camp to dislodge him from the party president’s post, apparently to dwarf his stature.

 

The state cabinet is in chaos as ministers have spoken out about “multiple power centres”, a “September revolution” in the state politics and the legislators have charged ministers of corruption, nepotism, and some even confided that there is severe paucity of development funds.

 

The ruling party in Karnataka is in a state of flux. Siddaramaiah’s efforts to implement the contentious caste census was halted by the party high command, calling for a fresh survey; the appointments to boards and corporations are pending. There has been a delay in nominations to the four MLC vacancies, the appointment of district presidents and also a possible cabinet reshuffle. But the most striking sign is Surjewala holding closed-door meetings with MLAs in the absence of both the chief minister and the Karnataka party president. 

 

The CM-in-waiting, Shivakumar, is refusing to step down as the KPCC chief, with his supporters openly endorsing his elevation as the chief minister. The high command's bid to pull a sitting chief minister Siddaramaiah into national politics, or even Shivakumar’s admission that he has “no option” but to support the chief minister and he repeatedly stating that “efforts might fail but prayers don’t”, clearly indicate that the party is preparing ground for a major overhaul. But is it time for a change?

 

Perhaps, no. With Bihar polls round the corner, and Rahul Gandhi’s OBC outreach, the last thing the Congress leadership wishes to see is a popular OBC Chief Minister Siddaramaiah being targeted by their own partymen.

India