Should Russian ally India be worried about Trump's 100 per cent secondary tariffs?

As expected, US President Donald Trump on Monday announced severe penalties on Russia, in a bid to end its war on Ukraine, by allotting new weapons to Ukraine and threatening 100 per cent secondary tariffs on Russian export buyers, in a bid to pressure Moscow to end its war on Ukraine. 

 

The US President also gave a deadline of 50 days for Russia to end the war, to avoid the tariffs. While Russia responded to the announcement, calling it a "theatrical ultimatum", Trump's plan holds huge implications for India, considering that it is Russia's biggest trading partner in crude exports.

 

 In April 2025, India's crude imports from Russia reached nearly 2 million barrels per day, marking a two-year high. The data from Kpler estimates that over a third of overall purchases have been from the OPEC+ producer this year, compared with less than 1% prior to the war, according to data from Kpler. This is even more than China's. 

 

For the same reason, a secondary tariff of 100% means India will face sanctions. "If push really comes to shove, and India cannot buy any crude oil from the Russian system, then India has optionality with the other OPEC members," Mukesh Sahdev, head of commodity markets at Rystad Energy A/S told Bloomberg. Sahdev said this "will be at a higher cost."

 

While imports from Middle East and Africa can help plug the gap, this would cost India dear as the prices from Saudi Arabia in May were $5 a barrel higher than those from Russia. India also imported oil from Iraq, which was also 50 cents more costly. In total, substituting Russian oil with Middle Eastern oil would mean an increase of $3–6 per replacement barrel.

 

Not just for its use, India has also been exporting refined products to Europe after refining the crude from Russia. This was cushioning the blow of Western sanctions on Moscow. This re-routing ensures a flow of foreign currency to Russia without the baggage of political concessions. 

 

India’s petroleum minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, has already warned of the aftermath of such a move in the global economy. "Imagine the chaos if Russian oil, amounting to about 10% of the global oil supply of around 97 million, vanished from the market," he posted on X, adding that this would force the world to reduce its consumption and the prices would’ve spiralled to over $120-130.

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