The Dalai Lama question will be a problem for China

ON the issue of the continuation of the institution of the Dalai Lama and the 14th Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, both sides — the Dalai Lama and the Chinese — have drawn unambiguous lines in the sand. The 14th Dalai Lama has unequivocally declared that he will not be reborn under an authoritarian regime, thus ruling out the possibility of his being reincarnated inside the People’s Republic of China. With this, it is certain that the Chinese, notwithstanding the irony of the situation, will contest the “genuineness" of the 14th Dalai Lama’s reincarnation and announce a candidate of their own. This piquant situation will affect the approximately seven million Tibetans inside China and also the wider Tibetan diaspora.

The 14th Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday on July 6 was an important event. That day, the 14th Dalai Lama made the long-awaited announcement confirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue. In fact, Samdong Rimpoche, former Kalon Tripa (or Prime Minister of the exiled Tibetan community) and one of the closest confidants of the 14th Dalai Lama, said that the institution would continue till the 15th, 16th and 17th Dalai Lamas!

It has also been clarified that the Gaden Phobrang, the 14th Dalai Lama’s personal trust, has been entrusted with guiding and monitoring the process of finding the reincarnation. The details of where

and when will obviously only become available after a while.

Despite various decades-long attempts by China’s Communist regime, including negotiations with the Dalai Lama’s representatives, to ensure that the 14th Dalai Lama either returns or is reincarnated inside China, it is now definite that the 14th Dalai Lama will be reincarnated outside China. This is a development that the Chinese leadership has tried hard to avoid.

In an unusual paper published in June 2013, obviously with high-level approval, Jin Wei, a senior faculty in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s Central Party School, cautioned that in the “post-Dalai Lama phase, the exiled Tibetan government will probably join other extremist organisations to engage in extreme violence." He said China must, therefore, make every possible effort to “avoid the embarrassment of a twin Dalai Lama" situation, like that of the Panchen Lama. Highlighting the status of the Dalai Lama among the Tibetan people, he tellingly observed that during his extensive travels in Tibet, ordinary people had told him: “In this life I depend on the Communist Party, in the next life I depend on the Dalai Lama."

The 14th Dalai Lama’s reincarnation also has international ramifications. It is not only China’s neighbours that will be impacted but also the numerous, largely Buddhist, nations in East and Southeast Asia as well as democracies in the West and the US.

Washington has, in fact, already stated its position in the Resolve Act passed by the US Congress in 2024. The Act asserts that China has no right to interfere

in the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation.

This is a crucial year for the Tibetans and is marked by a couple of anniversaries important for the Communist Chinese regime. It is the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) and the 75th anniversary of the so-called “peaceful liberation of Tibet".

With occasional, but regular, protests mainly by monks or Tibetans motivated by the desire to preserve their language and culture still occurring across Tibet and Tibetan areas, the Chinese authorities have taken steps to ensure that there are no protests. Heightened police and military presence has been reported in at least 12 Tibetan cities, prefectures and monasteries. These include Lhasa City and the reputed Kumbum and Labrang monasteries.

Meanwhile, Gyaltsen Norbu, the China-appointed Panchen Lama, who met Chinese President Xi Jinping and the two seniormost officials dealing with Tibet in Beijing on June 5, arrived in Tibet on June 27. Following Xi Jinping’s instructions, he has been meeting Tibetan Buddhist monks in major monasteries and exhorting them to promote the ‘sense of Chinese community’, nationalism and patriotism and accelerate the pace of adapting Tibetan Buddhism to socialism with Chinese characteristics.

There are indications that plans are being finalised for celebrating the 60th anniversary of the so-called “peaceful liberation" of Tibet around mid-September. Reports indicate that Xi

Jinping will probably visit Tibet to take part in these celebrations.

Xi Jinping’s interest in Tibet has been visible ever since he was appointed Vice-President of China and even earlier, if one recalls that his mother is a practising Buddhist. As Party Secretary of Zhejiang province, he successfully organised China’s First World Buddhist Forum in 2001.

Xi Jinping’s visit will reinforce the importance accorded to Tibet by the CCP leadership while simultaneously heightening the already restrictive security controls imposed across the TAR and on Tibetans.

In order to raise the China-appointed Panchen Lama’s profile in preparation for his role in recognising the 14th Dalai Lama’s reincarnation and later being his principal tutor, Gyaltsen Norbu is likely to accompany Xi Jinping during his visit to Tibet.

In the post-14th Dalai Lama phase, Beijing can be expected to enhance pressure on India and try and promote division and discord within the exiled Tibetan community. It will seek to describe the Central Tibetan Administration as a secessionist outfit and warn India not to support it or the reincarnate Dalai Lama.

India’s stance over the years, however, in spite of Chinese pressure, especially since 1980, has not wavered and the government will in all probability recognise the reincarnation accepted by the Tibetan people. Prime Minister Modi’s birthday greetings to the 14th Dalai Lama is a signal.

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