Japan’s Ruling Coalition Loses Grip On Upper House As Pressure Mounts On PM Ishiba

Japan’s ruling coalition suffered a major electoral setback on Sunday, losing its majority in the upper house — a blow that further undermines Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s hold on power. Despite the stinging defeat, Ishiba vowed to stay on as party leader, citing high-stakes trade talks with the United States as too critical to abandon now.

While the election result doesn’t automatically unseat Ishiba’s government, it adds to the mounting political pressure that has intensified since October, when his coalition lost control of the more powerful lower house. With public dissatisfaction rising and opposition momentum growing, the prime minister faces a challenging road ahead.

In Sunday’s vote, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its longtime coalition partner Komeito secured only 47 seats — falling short of the 50 needed for a majority in the 248-member upper chamber, where half the seats were contested. The result marks the coalition’s second major electoral setback in under a year.

The LDP’s poor showing follows October’s crushing defeat in the lower house — its worst performance in 15 years — which opened the door to no-confidence motions and stirred internal calls for new leadership.

Speaking to national broadcaster NHK late Sunday night, Ishiba acknowledged the loss. “I solemnly accept this harsh result,” he said. But he also remained defiant, telling TV Tokyo that ongoing tariff negotiations with the U.S. demand steady leadership. “We are in the midst of extremely critical negotiations… We must not jeopardize these talks. It’s only right to dedicate ourselves entirely to protecting Japan’s national interests.”

When pressed about his future, Ishiba confirmed, “That’s right,” indicating he has no plans to step down. Japan now faces an August 1 deadline to finalize a trade deal with the United States or risk steep tariffs in its largest export market — a high-stakes economic showdown that could further shape Ishiba’s political fate.

Opposition Gains Ground, Populists Rise

The Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) emerged as the main opposition force, picking up 22 seats. However, much of the spotlight fell on the far-right Sanseito party, which made a dramatic entrance into mainstream politics. Adding 14 seats to the one it previously held, Sanseito’s rise has been swift and striking.

Once a fringe movement born on YouTube during the pandemic — peddling vaccine conspiracies and anti-globalist rhetoric — Sanseito has struck a nerve with voters through its populist, anti-immigration message and “Japanese First” campaign.

“This party speaks to something many people feel but don’t say out loud,” said 25-year-old Yu Nagai, a graduate student who cast his vote for Sanseito in Tokyo’s Shinjuku ward. “I look around and see more foreigners than Japanese in my classes. When I think about how money is being spent, it feels like we’re not being prioritized.” Although foreign-born residents make up just 3% of Japan’s population — far lower than in the U.S. or Europe — their visibility has grown sharply amid a tourism surge. And in the world’s fastest-aging society, that visibility is fueling debate.

Sanseito’s success has drawn comparisons to hard-right movements abroad, such as Germany’s AfD and Reform UK. The question now is whether the party can sustain its momentum — or if it will remain a protest vote without long-term staying power.

Economic Anxiety Shapes the Debate

Sunday’s results reflect growing frustration over rising living costs — especially the surging price of rice and other staples — which have left many Japanese households struggling. Opposition parties tapping into that discontent, especially with promises of tax cuts and expanded welfare, found their message resonating with voters.

“The LDP was mostly on the defensive in this election, and on the wrong side of key economic issues,” said David Boling, director at political consultancy Eurasia Group. “Most households want a cut in the consumption tax to ease inflation, but the LDP has resisted. The opposition capitalized on that — and hammered the message home.” The LDP, wary of rattling markets, has urged fiscal restraint in light of Japan’s massive debt burden — the world’s largest. But now, with fewer seats and less leverage, the ruling party may have to negotiate policy concessions with the opposition, further testing investor confidence.

“The government will have to make compromises,” said Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo. “The budget will expand, and overseas investors may start looking at Japan with increasing skepticism.” As political uncertainty deepens and economic pressure mounts, Ishiba’s leadership hangs in the balance. The coming weeks — especially the outcome of trade talks with Washington — could prove decisive.

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