Narendra Modi’s Balancing of Quad and SCO Summits

 

By Nitya Chakraborty

India-China bilateral relations have started showing cautious improvement with the signals from both the leaderships of the two biggest countries of Asia that they are keen to restore normal political and economic ties. Indian external affairs minister Dr. S Jaishankar’s meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday in Beijing was quite warm as the Indian minister conveyed to the Chinese President the greetings from both President Draupadi Murmu and the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Dr. Jaishankar apprised President XI of the notable progress in improving bilateral relations which the Chinese President readily reciprocated.

Dr. Jaishankar attended the foreign ministers meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin hosted by the Chinese foreign minister. Indian minister took part in the discussions on terrorism in the South Asian region focusing on the killings by terrorists in Pahalgam on April 22 this year and underlined the need for all out fight by the SCO members which included Pakistan also, against terrorism. He also emphasised the strong need for action against the perpetrators of such killings without naming Pakistan. Pakistan foreign minister Dr. Ishaque Dar contested Dr. Jaishankar during his address saying that India had not given any proof of Pahalgam killers link with Pakistan. This was a deliberate move by India to maintain war fever against its neighbour. However, there was no official row over declaration like the earlier SCO defence ministers meeting as it was not needed from foreign ministers meet.

Now the SCO summit of head of states is scheduled in Tianjin in China in September this year. All indications are that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be attending and he will have separate meeting with the Chinese President Xi Jinping who will be hosting. This will give the Indian PM another opportunity to discuss pending bilateral issues with the President XI and take on the process of normalization which in fact started from the last meet of the two leaders at Kazan summit in Russia in October last year.

Let us look at the pending bilateral issues both short term and long term. First the Tibet issue, the controversy over the successor of present Dalai Lama who is 90 years old. The junior central minister Kiren Rijiju created some initial problem by stating officially that Dalai Lama will have the right to choose his successor. China objected to it, but the course correction was soon made by the external affairs ministry by stating that India would not interfere in this process of succession. That is the correct position. If India sticks to it, there may not be immediate problem. But apprehensions are there that if Dalai Lama finally announces his successor defying Chinese wishes, there could be some sort of Chinese intervention. Then what will be the Indian position?

The next issue is the handling of India-China trade relations in the context of Trump’s tariff war. China has a huge favourable trade balance in its favour. In the context of earlier anti-Indian positions of China, there had been clamour for correcting the trade balance by scaling down imports from China. But our experienced commerce ministry officials have taken note of the adverse impact of any drastic action on Indian industry including both electronics and pharma. So the scaling down process is taking place in a calibrated manner. But still India’s trade deficit with China touched as high as US$ 100 billion in 2025.

Right now, India is in the final stages of negotiations with the USA in Washington for the conclusion of interim trade deal in the context of Trump’s tariff war. US wants to use India also as a trade hub to harm Chinese trade. China knows it. So China has already given a warning that those countries who will conclude deal with the USA at the cost of Chinese exports, might get Chinese backlash. China is the second largest economy. In its deal with the USA last month in London meeting, China was able to protect many of its trade areas from US attacks due to its bargaining capacity. India has not such bargaining power like China in trade talks with the USA. So if India is compelled to abide by US diktat on harming Chinese trade, it will lead to new problems in India-China trade relations.

Already, China has exercised its power by harming Indian economy by the pullout of Chinese engineers from Foxconn’s iPhone factories in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, Beijing may apply more such pressures on India if India concludes its deal aimed to hit Chinese exports. Indian economy is on the move despite inequalities. India may emerge as the fourth largest economy of the world by the end of 2025. India has the possibility of emerging as the third largest economy in the world after USA and China in the next two to three years. But still China is more than six times the economy of India with more or less same population now and it is determined to touch USA and emerge as the largest economy of the world by 2049- the 100th year of the communist government formation in China.

Then the latest concern of China is India’s active participation in QUAD which President Xi Jinping terms as the grouping to contain China. Though the recent moves of President Trump have aroused concern in PM Modi, India is committed to the US position on QUAD as of now. In September/October this year, QUAD summit will be held in India hosted by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The SCO summit is scheduled in Tianjin around the same time though the dates will be separate. If the SCO summit is held after the QUAD meet, PM Modi at his meeting with President Xi in China, will be required to offer lot of explaining on the outcome of QUAD summit. Similarly if QUAD summit is held after SCO summit, PM Modi will be grilled by President Trump on the significance of SCO summit decisions and its impact on US strategy. PM Modi will have a tough time in September/October in balancing Indian interests with the respective demands of both USA and China.

The border dispute is a long term issue. For the time being, indications are that China is not interested in any proliferation just like 2020 developments at Galwan valley. China is now more interested in the other issues, more global and India’s position will be deciding factor for Chinese leadership in taking a medium term view. India’s China strategy has to be flexible to suit the demands of the times. China is talking of multilateralism in 2025 to take the space vacated by Donald Trump. China is talking sweet with most countries including EU to position itself as the leader representing the rule based international world order. In fact China has gained in global trade diplomacy in winning the minds of many developing and European countries in the present global tariff turmoil.

India have to be aware of Chinese efforts in recent days to corner India in South Asian diplomacy for which India also have to take the blame. China had talks with Pakistan and Bangladesh to form a SAARC type of bloc excluding India. China has now big influence on both Pakistan and Bangladesh, India’s two immediate unfriendly neighbours. Our external affairs ministry officials have high experience in dealing with delicate issues. If they are allowed autonomy in deciding on policies relating to neighbouring countries, that will be helpful for India’s diplomacy in the coming days. Too much intervention by PMO in the affairs of external affairs ministry has adversely affected the effectiveness of the ministry. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to give a close look to his foreign policy including USA and China taking into account the latest global developments including Trump’s stance on India. There is strategic necessity of reordering of India’s ties with both USA and China. (IPA Service)

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