Nepal PM’s India visit & his penchant for the China card

ON July 21, Nepali newspapers announced the long-awaited visit of KP Sharma Oli to India from September 16-17, 14 months after he became Nepal’s Prime Minister for the fourth time. He will meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi on September 17, which is Modi’s 75th birthday. The dates for Oli visit have been shifted three times already — from July to August and, now, September.

The UML-NC power-sharing alliance between Nepal’s two largest parties exists, despite the fact that they are bitter rivals and have failed to live up to the promises both had made in the Seven-Point Agreement.

Unusually, Oli first visited China in December last year and signed the BRI Framework Agreement, which was pending since 2017 — traditionally, Nepal’s PMs have first called on Delhi. But this time around he did not get an invitation.

Piqued by this, Oli began to bait India. He told veteran Nepalese journalist Vijay Pande recently that he would soon visit Delhi and that Modi would come to Kathmandu in November. Visiting India was not a big deal, Oli said, but it was important. He added : “We have good relations with both China and India."

Elsewhere, Oli observed: “Ram Janmabhoomi is in Nepal and so is the birthplace of Lord Shiva." In June, hinting at India, he had said that Nepal was not a ‘dusht‘ (enemy) neighbour.

Still, Nepal Foreign Minister Arzu Rana’s extraordinary diplomatic drive to secure an invitation for Oli is clearly unprecedented, her personal rapport with Foreign Minister Jaishankar exceptional. The delay in the India invitation, it seems, has to do with Oli himself and his penchant for the China card.

Beijing was delighted when Oli returned to power. China won’t easily give up the effort to keep afloat a Left Alliance of Communist parties in Nepal it had created in 2017. The Left parties control 60 per cent of the Lower House while they are in majority in the National Assembly (Upper House).

As for India, Oli has met Modi twice: Last year on the sidelines of UN General Assembly and at this year’s BIMSTEC meeting. Mandarins in South Block want to repair India’s Neighbourhood First policy. Nepal’s geostrategic importance for India has gone up after Bhutan’s assiduous wooing of China last year.

Despite irritants, bilateral relations have progressed in security, trade and hydropower. A battalion-level exercise (the highest level with any country) was held recently between an Indian Gorkha battalion and the Nepal Army inside Nepal.

This is despite the fact that India has not recruited Nepal-domiciled Gorkhas since the Agniveer scheme was implemented in 2022. Delhi has made little effort to correct this particular glitch in bilateral relations.

Meanwhile, the two home secretaries met in Delhi last week to discuss the new Extradition Treaty and Mutual Legal Assistance, among other issues. But legacy problems remain, including the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship and the Kalapani issue.

Two most important issues in Nepal’s political scene today are corruption and the re-emergence of Communist leader Bidya Bhandari. The third is the rise of Nepali Congress leader Shekhar Koirala.

Corruption’s most recent casualty was UML Minister for Federal Affairs and General Administration Rajkumar Gupta for demanding cash for political posts. NC’s Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak is being investigated over the issue of sale of visas.

The re-entry of former President Bidya Devi Bhandari, wife of legendary UML leader Madan Bhandari, is adding to Oli’s leadership worries. Beijing invited her recently, viewing her as an alternative to an unpredictable Oli.

Bhandari is being criticised for indulging in domestic politics after holding the highest office in the country for 10 years. She seems to be encouraged by China, which was good reason enough for India to invite Oli.

The rise of Koirala, meanwhile, has been noted by all of Nepal. His ascent is being opposed by second generation NC leaders like Gagan Thapa and Arzu Rana. Koirala has proved he is the tallest leader after five-time Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, who will get another stint as PM next year.

In an interview with The Kathmandu Post (July 14), Koirala said the UML-NC alliance was his idea and he met Oli several times to seal it. He cited successes of previous UML-NC alliances in 1990, 1996 and 2014.

Asked about Rana’s alleged involvement in the Bhutan refugee scam being the reason for the formation of the alliance, he said he could not say whether or not she had played a role in it.

Koirala discussed the long-delayed NC convention, emphasising that it must be held this year and not after the elections in 2027. He criticised the working of the disciplinary committee in the treatment of billionaire Binod Chaudhary.

Differences between Gagan Thapa and him, he said, were over style, not substance — both are contenders for party president and leader of the parliamentary party.

In my village at Lame Ahal, Pokhara, Krishna Pandey, principal of the high school, told me that Koirala was ‘clean’ and fit to lead the NC after Deuba.

The top item on Oli’s India agenda is likely to be the Pancheshwar-Mahakali Treaty whose DPR (Detailed Project Report) is pending since 1996. Oli had, as then Leader of Opposition, aligned with Deuba (then PM) to clinch the Mahakali agreement with an unprecedented two-third majority. But that pact still hasn’t been signed. September will hopefully breathe new life into India-Nepal relations.

India will receive him with full protocol and courtesy. As for trust, it has been a long journey of deception and betrayal, but at the end of it all both sides know that the relationship is far too important to let it slide. India and Nepal have no alternative but to get along.

Maj Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd) is former Founding Member, Defence Planning Staff.

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