Opinion | A Damned Conundrum: China’s New Megadam and the Geopolitics of Water
The construction of extensive hydropower infrastructure by China on the Brahmaputra River, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, represents a significant geopolitical and environmental concern for downstream nations, especially India and Bangladesh. With projections suggesting it will become the world's largest hydropower facility, surpassing the Three Gorges Dam, the project has triggered legitimate fears of environmental disruption, strategic manipulation, and regional instability.
Scale And Strategic Intent
In July 2025, Chinese Premier Li Qiang formally launched the construction of a massive hydropower project in Nyingchi, Tibet, at the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo. The project, with an estimated investment of $167 billion (1.2 trillion yuan), is designed to house five major hydroelectric plants and deliver a generation capacity of approximately 60 GW, nearly triple that of the Three Gorges Dam. According to Chinese authorities, the project aligns with national carbon neutrality targets and seeks to stimulate economic growth in Tibet.
This mega-initiative builds upon previous Chinese hydropower efforts in the region. The Zangmu Dam, operational since 2015, marked the beginning of upstream development on the Brahmaputra. It has since been followed by other facilities such as Dagu, Jiexu, and Jiacha. Notably, the proposed Medog Dam is located less than 30 kilometres from the Indian border.
Downstream Vulnerabilities
For India and Bangladesh, both dependent on the Brahmaputra for agriculture, fisheries, and drinking water, these developments raise multiple concerns:
- Reduced Water Flow: China's upstream dams could restrict the natural flow during dry seasons, impacting irrigation and food production. While India's dependence on the Brahmaputra varies across estimates (from 7% to as high as 40%), northeastern states like Assam are especially vulnerable.
- Increased Flood Risk: Sudden water discharges during monsoons could intensify the risk of flash floods. Arunachal Pradesh's Chief Minister, Pema Khandu, has warned that the dam could act as a “water bomb,” capable of inflicting catastrophic damage downstream.
- Degradation of Water Quality: In 2017, the Siang River a tributary of the Brahmaputra turned black and turbid after originating in Tibet, severely affecting local ecosystems and livelihoods. The incident, though not officially linked to Chinese activities, underscored the risks of unmonitored upstream interventions.
- Ecological Disruption: Large-scale construction in the fragile ecosystem of the Tibetan plateau could irreversibly alter aquatic biodiversity, disrupt fish migration, and affect the natural rhythm of the river basin.
More broadly, concerns about the 'weaponisation of water' have grown. During the 2017 Doklam standoff, China unilaterally stopped sharing hydrological data with India, a move perceived by many in New Delhi as politically motivated, particularly as China continued sharing similar data with Bangladesh. This incident exemplified the risks inherent in the absence of enforceable bilateral protocols or third-party oversight.
China's Position and Legal Posture
China has long asserted sovereign control over transboundary rivers, maintaining that upstream developments fall strictly within its jurisdiction. This position aligns with a broader pattern of hydro-sovereignty and explains its refusal to sign the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses, which encourages equitable use and cooperation among riparian states.
While Beijing claims that the new dams are “run-of-the-river” projects, meaning they do not entail significant storage or diversion, regional experience with China's infrastructure on the Mekong suggests caution is warranted. Furthermore, China's internal initiatives, such as the South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP), raise additional concerns that the Brahmaputra could eventually be drawn into inter-basin water diversion schemes, further reducing downstream flows.
Border Infrastructure and Territorial Signalling
The hydropower push is also part of a larger infrastructural strategy linked to China's territorial claims. Nyingchi Prefecture, where construction is concentrated, borders Arunachal Pradesh, an Indian state China refers to as "South Tibet." Through the rapid development of border infrastructure, including airfields, roads, and rail links, Beijing appears to be reinforcing its administrative and military footprint along disputed sections of the Sino-Indian frontier.
The integration of hydropower with mineral extraction further amplifies the strategic calculus. Rich mineral deposits in the region, requiring both energy and connectivity, create additional incentives for a permanent and populous presence near the border, potentially shifting the geopolitical balance.
Environmental and Seismic Risks
The Himalayan-Tibetan region is one of the most seismically active zones on Earth. In January 2025, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Tibet damaged four reservoirs, highlighting the potential for disaster. The risk of Reservoir-Induced Seismicity (RIS) is not hypothetical; researchers have previously suggested a link between the 2008 Sichuan earthquake and the Zipingpu Dam.
Beyond seismic threats, landslides and glacial lake outbursts pose real dangers to dam integrity and downstream populations. The possibility of a cascading dam failure where one collapse triggers others represents an unquantifiable but severe hazard, particularly for densely populated areas downstream in India and Bangladesh.
India's Strategic Response
India has responded with a mix of infrastructural, diplomatic, and strategic countermeasures. The proposed Siang Upper Multipurpose Project in Arunachal Pradesh envisions a 10 GW storage-based dam, which would not only assert India's riparian rights but also serve as a regulatory buffer during water shortages or sudden discharges.
On the intelligence and monitoring front, India is seeking to enhance its independent data-gathering capabilities, including satellite monitoring and improved sensor networks closer to the Line of Actual Control. Infrastructure development in Arunachal Pradesh is also being accelerated, with a focus on strategic roads, advanced landing grounds, and logistical corridors to facilitate rapid military mobilisation.
At the community level, efforts are underway to strengthen the socio-economic fabric of border villages. This includes incentivising local populations to remain in frontier areas, both as a stabilising presence and as early-warning observers in the event of conflict or environmental disruption.
Governance Gaps and Regional Cooperation
Despite its transboundary importance, the Brahmaputra River is not governed by a comprehensive treaty between China and India. The existing data-sharing mechanism remains limited, transactional, and fragile. While Bangladesh benefits from a more consistent flow of information, India has repeatedly faced data blackouts during periods of bilateral tension.
Experts have long advocated for a regional framework, possibly under the aegis of SAARC or BIMSTEC, to promote cooperative river basin management. A collective lower-riparian platform involving India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan could increase negotiating leverage with China, push for transparency, and explore regional mechanisms for dispute resolution, especially in light of accelerating glacial melt and climate-induced water stress.
China's dam-building on the Brahmaputra is not merely a matter of infrastructure or energy policy it is an assertion of territorial, environmental, and strategic control. For India, the challenge is not just to respond reactively, but to shape a coherent doctrine that spans diplomacy, deterrence, data sovereignty, and sustainable development. If water is to be the defining issue of 21st-century geopolitics, the Brahmaputra will likely be one of its most contested frontiers.
(Aryan Kumar is a postgraduate student at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, Specialising in Strategic Communications.)
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