Explained | Can Raj-Uddhav Thackerays challenge Shinde, BJP in Maharashtra Municipal polls?

On July 27, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray went to 'Matoshree', the residence of former Maharashtra chief minister and Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray, after seven years. He had been there earlier, in 2019, to invite Uddhav and family for his son Amit's wedding. This time around, however, the occasion was Uddhav Thackeray’s 65th birthday, and Raj went there with a bouquet of red roses.

The meeting between the two brothers lasted close to half an hour, and the two Thackeray cousins greeted each other with a warm hug. " I am overwhelmed," said Uddhav upon receiving a bouquet of roses from Raj.

The meeting is being seen as yet another step in the direction of a possible political alliance between the Senas controlled by Raj and Uddhav, ahead of the municipal elections in Maharashtra, which are just a few months away.

This was the second meeting between Thackeray cousins in July. Earlier, they had met and shared stage on July 5, at a victory rally, when the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti government was forced to cancel its decision to introduce Hindi language for classes 1 to 5. Both Senas had opposed the move and had decided to take out morchas. But, when the government withdrew its decision, they decided to hold a non-political joint victory rally. It was that rally which really set the ball rolling.

 

What will happen if Thackeray cousins come together and form an alliance?

The immediate impact of such an alliance will be seen in the Mumbai municipal corporation elections. United Shiv Sena has been controlling the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) for almost three decades. In the 2017 elections, the BJP strongly improved its tally to cross 80-seat mark, while Shiv Sena's tally fell below 100. The BJP wanted to go for a kill as Devendra Fadnavis government was in power. But, it was Fadnavis himself who took the decision that BMC can remain with Sena, as the then government was in alliance with Shiv Sena.

The term of the BMC ended in 2022, and since then, it has been governed by a top IAS officer, who is the administrator. Currently, Bhushan Gagrani is the BMC commissioner and administrator. During elections, the Marathi vote is likely to unite and support the alliance of Raj and Uddhav Thackeray’s Senas.

 

Will that be enough for both Senas to win the elections?

Unlikely. But, if the larger Maha Vikas Agadi remains together behind Uddhav Thackeray, then it will be a formidable force that can win elections.

 

Will MVA accept Uddhav Thackeray’s alliance with Raj Thackeray?

The NCP-Sharad Pawar faction won't have a problem if both Thackerays unite. The problem will be for the Congress as it will be unwilling to extend a hand of friendship to Raj Thackeray, because of latter's strong anti-migrant, anti-north Indian views. With the Bihar elections just a few months away, Congress will not want anything to do with Raj Thackeray as of now.

 

What will happen to Eknath Shinde and his Sena if Thackeray cousins come together?

It will be the Shinde Sena that will be really affected by the possible alliance between Raj and Uddhav Thackeray. So far, Shinde has been saying that his Sena is the real Shiv Sena. But, after an alliance between the Thackerays, the Shinde Sena might lose its shine and appeal, especially in the Mumbai municipal corporation region. Shinde may well hold on to Thane, his bastion, but his ambition of taking away the core support base of Shiv Sena in Mumbai may not be fulfilled. 

This will in turn affect the BJP’s dream of snatching away BMC from Uddhav’s control and pocketing the cash-rich municipal corporation.

 

So what is likely to be the BJP's policy?

BJP’s policy will be to play a no-risk game. It might want to contest municipal elections as a three-party Mahayuti alliance. BJP’s leadership will also not target Raj Thackeray and concentrate its attack on Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena and its role in corruption in BMC. 

India