Two-state solution nears a dead end

IN 2018, when I was Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, in charge of the Arab world and Israel, a high-level Israeli official came to meet me in Delhi. Since India and Israel have such excellent bilateral relations, he said, it is time this got reflected in the “Palestinian track” of our relations as well — India and Israel had always differed on this track, with India standing for a separate Palestinian state.

I explained to him that India-Israel relations had grown by leaps and bounds since we had established diplomatic ties in 1991, precisely because we had kept the two “tracks” separate and had agreed to disagree on the Palestine issue. If we were to now combine the two and something adverse were to happen on the Palestinian track, it would surely impact our relations with Israel as well. This zero-sum situation was not desirable for either of us, I added.

This, in a nutshell, is the problem today in India-Israel relations. After India merged the two tracks a few years ago, the Palestinian track began to get diluted. This happened as the bonhomie grew between India and Israel, and positive regional developments took place in the Gulf, such as the Abraham Accords and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Even if India still supported a two-state solution (for both Palestine and Israel), it abstained on some Palestinian-related UN resolutions, where it had traditionally voted with Palestine.

This is, once again, changing. As the world watches the impunity and brutality with which Israel has treated Palestinians, India’s pro-Israel tilt is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

New Delhi had also perceived the stand of several Gulf and Arab countries on the Gaza war as a vindication of its own pro-Israel tilt. Countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE remained on the sidelines of the Gaza war, since their larger interest was to remove the threat of Iran and its proxies from the region. But once those objectives were achieved — as Iranian nuclear reactors were bombed and powerful Iranian leaders assassinated — the same Gulf and Arab states have now begun to take a more vocal position on Gaza. Realising that we need to be vocal, if not assertive, on Palestine, India called for a ceasefire in Gaza, though we abstained on a similar UNGA resolution less than two months ago.

On July 28, Saudi Arabia and France convened a UN high-level international conference with the goal of recognising Palestinian statehood.

Even if all these measures are a case of “too little, too late,” considering there is hardly anything left of Gaza after nearly 60,000 people, mostly women and children, have been killed and infrastructure and livelihood destroyed, the meeting looked more like a collective catharsis for the international community, which has stood by silently for over a decade ignoring the Palestinian issue. The world waits with “bated breath” for a handful of European countries to “recognise” a Palestinian state, when most countries have done so decades ago — India being among the first.

I still remember how, when India was in the UN Security Council in 2021-22, UNSC member states would line up every month inside the Council to strike all the right notes on Palestine. They did exactly the opposite outside the Council — like pushing for normalisation of relations with Israel without giving the Palestinian issue even a footnote in those agreements.

The goal of the Palestinians has always been a Palestinian state — a nation which belongs to Muslims, Christians and Jews.

Meanwhile, the level of violence in the West Bank is increasing by the day. Illegal Israeli settlements are growing, creating new tensions on the ground. Since October 2023, at least 964 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank (including East Jerusalem), by Israeli forces or Israeli settlers. In West Bank cities like Jenin, Tulkarem and Taybeh, military operations, air strikes, and Israeli settler attacks have uprooted people from their homes. Christians, too, have been targeted — the oldest church in Gaza, the Church of Saint Porphyrius, was attacked, killing 18 Palestinians. Even Mother Teresa’s Missionaries of Charity in Gaza was attacked. The Armenian Patriarchate of Jerusalem had said that the “greatest existential threat” to Christian community has come from Israeli settlers.

In fact, the big disservice Hamas has done is to redefine the Palestinian cause as one between Muslims and Jews rather than between Palestinians and Israelis. The goal of the Palestinians has always been a Palestinian state — a nation which belongs to Muslims, Christians and Jews. The Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO), before and after Yasser Arafat, encompassed factions from one end of the ideological spectrum to the other. The rise of Hamas had suited Israel, because it helped it to oppose the PLO and President Arafat and discredit them as the genuine voice of the Palestinians.

The fundamental question remains: Is Israel prepared to accept a Palestinian state, whether it comprises just Gaza or all Occupied Territories? The answer is “No” since even the Israeli public does not support it after the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas. Ironically, the Israeli defence minister has proposed a ghetto for Palestinians in Gaza — he calls it a “humanitarian city” — except that he misses the irony of a Jew proposing a ghetto for non-Jews. Meanwhile, PM Netanyahu’s far-right coalition leaders have said that the West Bank, which they call by the Biblical name, Judea and Samaria, will be annexed by the end of 2025. And so the Israeli Knesset voted last week, 71-13, in favour of a non-binding resolution to annex “Judea, Samaria and the Jordan Valley.”

And what will come out of the rubble called Gaza? Once again, it is clear that the world will become engrossed with the process rather than substance — a ceasefire, return of hostages, humanitarian aid, disarming Hamas, rebuilding infrastructure and livelihood. All this will receive the highest priority and precedence. Any talk of simultaneously starting negotiations for statehood, for an independent Palestine, will be firmly put on the back-burner. In any case, nothing can be done without the US on board. The US holds the view that any recognition of a Palestinian state will be a vindication of October 7 Hamas attacks.

As for Gaza, it will be years before it returns to the pre-October 2023 situation, when it was still occupied and there was no pathway for a Palestinian state. This may well satisfy the world. After all, it was good enough for the world, less than two years ago. The Israelis are threatening to go back to an era when there were Israeli settlements in Gaza. The International Court of Justice’s recent ruling on the borders for a future Palestinian state goes back to an even earlier era i.e. pre-1967 — before Israel, inter alia, occupied Gaza Strip, West Bank, East Jerusalem and Syrian Golan Heights! So, how far in history does the world want to go?

In the meantime, even if Israel has not annexed the West Bank, Israeli settlements would have covered a major part of the West Bank and changed the ground realities irreversibly. In effect, a two-state solution, both Palestine and Israel co-existing side by side, will soon become impossible.

Comments