Tejashwi Yadav’s CM plans in danger? Tej Pratap’s new coalition could impact Bihar Assembly election results

With months left for Bihar assembly elections, former minister Tej Pratap Yadav’s move to form a new coalition is likely to dent the RJD vote banks, according to reports. Tej Pratap, the elder son of Lalu Prasad Yadav, was ousted from the RJD citing “irresponsible behaviour” in May.

Tej Pratap Yadav on Tuesday announced the formation of a coalition of five minor parties, which include the Vikas Vanchit Insaan Party (VVIP), Bhojpuriya Jan Morcha (BJM), Pragatisheel Janta Party (PJP), Wajib Adhikar Party (WAP), and Sanyukt Kisan Vikas Party (SKVP). The MLA from Hasanpur said he will contest from Mahua, which he represented till 2020.

Speculations are that Tej Pratap’s new front could contest in all 243 seats. If so, it could eat into a small chunk of RJD votes as both Tej Pratap and RJD have Yadav-Muslim votes as their vote base. Considering that the RJD lost or won many seats by a thin margin of votes in the 2020 Assembly Elections, Tej Pratap’s entry could pose problem to the RJD. For instance, in Dehri, RJD candidate Fateh Bahadur Singh won by securing 63,802 votes, defeating BJP candidate Satya Narayan Singh by just 81 votes. Anil Kumar Sahni won Kurhani by 480 words while Simi Bakhtiyarpur candidate Yusuf Salahuddin won his seat by 1474 votes.

As for loses, JD (U) candidate Maheshwar Hazari won the Kalyanpur seat by securing 72,237 votes, defeating RJD candidate Manoj Kumar Yadav by a shocking margin of one vote. JD (U) candidate Krishnamurari Sharan (alias Prem Mukhiya) won the Hilsa seat by securing 61,616 votes, defeating RJD by just 13 votes.

Tej Pratap Yadav, who is still upset at the way he was treated, could field candidates with an aim of  spliting RJD, more than winning the seat. This will directly benefit the NDA alliance of BJP-JDU, which is hoping to retain the seat.

Tej Pratap has also extended an open invitation for RJD leaders and workers to join his coalition. This strategy could also add to the infightings within the RJD as there are already discontentment within the cadres and leaders with regard to seat sharing. If he manages to rope in atleast a few who were denied seats, this could land RJD in a fix.

That said, Tej Pratap’s political strategy is full of flaws. Without a strong organisation and clear strategy,   Tej Pratap’s political move is risky and reminiscent of another Bihar leader Upendra Kushwaha’s forming of new party.

Tej Pratap’s stratedy of wooing the Nishad community by allying with Nishad leader Pradeep Nishad's  VVIP party could also backfire, considering that Pradeep Nishad himself is a turncoat. He was with Mukesh Sahni’s Vikasheel Insaan Party but deserted him to form his own party. Though the Nishad community in Bihar which is 14 per cent of the vote bank plays a decisive role in many seats, Sahni still remains a in influential leader in the party.

India