Futility of Asim Munir’s vanity-driven grandstanding: Why US, China won't allow Pakistan's nuke threat to escalate

There is a basic problem with Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir’s nuke-laced diatribe against India—and ‘half of the world’—that he recently issued from Tampa in Florida. His benefactors—the US and China—would not allow it. For the Trump-led US and for China, business interests rule supreme, and war is bad for business.

 

Visiting the US for the second time in less than four months, the Field Marshal reportedly said during a small private gathering of the Pakistani Diaspora in Tampa: “We are a nuclear nation. If we think we are going down, we will take half the world down with us”.

 

No phones were allowed inside the venue, no recordings were allowed, nor is there an official record or transcript of Munir’s address.

ALSO READ: Decoding Trump’s geopolitical chessboard: Wooing Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir to pressure India

But if true, it was a needless declaration as much as it was meaningless. While it may serve to paint his image as that of a Pakistani strongman, it also reveals a sense of insecurity facing an existential crisis when he referred to India as a ‘shining Mercedes’ and his own country as a ‘gravel-filled dump truck’. “India is shining Mercedes coming on a highway like Ferrari, but we are a dump truck full of gravel. If the truck hits the car, who is going to be the loser?” Munir had sardonically asked.

 

But at the same time, it signified an important articulation of the Pakistani position—that it is now very proximate to both the US and China—which is actually going back to Pakistan playing the historical role of being the bridge between Washington DC and Beijing. Ostensibly, Munir is seeing himself in the role to bring the US and China closer.

 

In 1971, it was Pakistan that played the critical role in facilitating the then US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s secret visit to China, laying the ground for US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972. With China’s Premier Chou en Lai being warmly receptive to US overtures, the meetings set US-China ties on a strong mooring which catered to the common interest of encirclement of the then USSR.

 

On the face of it, Munir’s tirade has some nuisance value. At the beginning of this year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pakistan is believed to possess about 170 nuclear warheads, marginally less than India’s 180. But to actually walk his talk is quite another ball game.

 

As if not to be outdone, the military strongman’s cue has been followed by his political cohorts. On Tuesday, a bellicose Bilawal Bhutto, Pakistan’s foreign minister, issued a warning to India over the ‘abeyance’ of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, saying, “You people (Pakistanis) are strong enough for war to get back all six rivers. If India continues on this path, it leaves us with no choice except to consider all options, including the possibility of war, to protect our national interests”.

 

The Field Marshal’s remarks that Pakistan will “start (war) from India's East, where they have located their most valuable resources, and then move westwards” may be indicative of Islamabad’s suddenly warming relationship with Dhaka in the face of India’s plunging bilateral ties with Bangladesh.

 

It is a noteworthy fact that the US and China both have big and growing strategic interests in Bangladesh and Pakistan’s Baluchistan. While China is already invested in these two areas, US’ presence is growing by the day in these two geographies.

 

Recently, the US has signed important agreements with Pakistan on developing Baluchistan’s energy and mineral resources. Growing American presence in Baluchistan would also mean India’s eroding influence in the region.

 

The Pakistani military and the Inter Services Intelligence’s (ISI) role will lie in facilitating the carving out of distinctive zones of influence for both US and China in these two areas resulting in increasing Pakistan’s fast growing importance in the American scheme of things.

 

But truth be said, Munir’s attack is more a critique of Indian diplomacy and its recent failures. Perhaps, all the more reason for New Delhi to subvert Pakistan’s ploy by building trade and relationships with China and other leading blocs like the European Union. For good trade always leads to good politics. 

Defence