Trump looking for a way out after his anti-India stance? How SCO camaraderie, PM Modi-EU talks, and dissent from within the USA may be spooking the orange man
In a surprising shift, U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to have softened his aggressive stance toward India. While talking to the media on 6th September, he reaffirmed a “very special relationship” with India and described Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “great Prime Minister” with whom he will “always be friends.” He also claimed that there was no serious strain between India and the United States.
Responding to a question on whether he was ready to reset relations with India, Trump said, “I always will. I’ll always be friends with (PM) Modi. He’s a great Prime Minister.” However, he added that he remains unhappy with the Modi government for its decisions, as he said, “I’ll always be friends, but I just don’t like what he is doing at this particular moment.”
Trump added, “I have been disappointed that India would be buying so much oil from Russia. And I let them know that, I put a very high tariff – 50% on India. I get along very well with (Indian PM) Modi as you know.”
Responding to the comments, PM Modi broke his silence over President Trump’s anti-India remarks, as he posted on X saying, “Deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump’s sentiments and positive assessment of our ties. India and the US have a very positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership.”
Trump’s latest comments mark a significant departure from months of escalating tensions characterised by punitive tariffs, inflammatory rhetoric, and public spats over India’s purchase of Russian oil. Donald Trump has imposed 50% tariff on Indian exports to US, called Indian economy a dead economy, and lamented that his country has lost India to China. His aides like Peter Navarro and Howard Lutnick are continuously making inflammatory remarks against India on a daily basis.
Although not said publicly, it is also public knowledge that Trump is unhappy with Indian govt for not saying that he brokered India’s ceasefire with Pakistan, and for not nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize. Several other countries, including Israel, have nominated him due to his overtly public ambition for the prize.
The question is, why the sudden apparent climbdown. A closer look at the current situation in the USA suggests that Trump’s change is due to mounting domestic pressures, not sudden realisation that India is America’s friend. Signs of economic slowdown, a dismal job market, media backlash, and a plummeting approval rating may have been the reason why Trump will attempt to mend ties with Modi.
Economic Slowdown and Dismal Job Report
Donald Trump had promised to bring the U.S. economy to new heights. He continues to claim that it is doing excellently well, citing ‘billions of dollars’ collected in tariffs, but the fact is that the American economy is showing signs of strain. Recent data paints a grim picture- inflation remains high, with consumer prices rising faster than wages for many Americans. The cost of essentials like fuel, groceries, and housing have affected the pockets of Americans badly, eroding confidence in Trump’s economic leadership.
A research report has said that there is 93% probability of American economy hitting recession.
Compounding Trump’s economic woes is a recent job report that has sent shockwaves through Washington. Unemployment figures have ticked upward, with job growth stalling in key sectors like manufacturing and technology. The report underscores a broader trend, the U.S. labour market is struggling, and Trump’s policies have done little to reverse the trend.
After the July job report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed only 73,000 new jobs were added in that month, President fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of manipulating numbers to make him look bad. The August report shows just 22,000 jobs added, and revises June report to negative growth.
This has fuelled domestic discontent against the administration. American workers, already grappling with stagnant wages and rising costs, are growing frustrated with policies that are harming the economy instead.
His tariffs, meant to boost American jobs by increasing manufacturing activities in the country, have instead strained industries dependent on global supply chains. In the initial weeks, impact of the tariffs was not reflected much on retail prices as importers had already stocked up before the new tariffs become applicable. Some importers also absorbed the higher import duties after that for some time. But that is not a sustainable solution, and retail prices are set to rise in American stores, as even the countries that signed trade deals with the U.S. have been hit with 10-20% tariff. This will increase inflation and alienate U.S. businesses reliant on imports.
The tariffs have also disrupted global trade dynamics, and countries are looking at setting up new trade alliances. As a result, the US dollar is losing relevance in the global economy. The BRICS countries in particular are trading more in their own currencies replacing the dollar. Trump specifically threatened BRICS against launching its own currency. While that is not happening for now, the BRICS members are using currencies like Yuan, Ruble and Rupee etc for trade among themselves.
Moreover, central banks across the world, including India’s RBI, are dumping the US dollar and instead buying gold and silver as their reserves, as values of these precious metals don’t depend on whimsical decisions of one person. While the dollar remains strong and top instrument of reserve, worries over inflation, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, and geopolitical instability are raising questions about its stability in the long run.
With the U.S. facing potential recession risks, as warnedv by Moody’s Chief Economist, Trump’s aggressive trade policies are increasingly seen as counterproductive, prompting a recalibration to avoid further economic fallout.
India’s defiance
President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a staggering 50% tariff on Indian goods, including a 25% penalty for India’s continued purchase of Russian oil, was intended to pressure New Delhi into aligning with U.S. interests, particularly on Ukraine. However, the move has backfired. India has not only refused to halt Russian oil imports but has reiterated on its strategic autonomy. Even yesterday finance minister Nirmala Sitharama said that India will continue to buy Russian Oil.
Modi govt has also aggressively improved ties with China, as seen at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit. The country’s ties with Russia remains strong, with no sign of stopping purchase of Russian oil and defence equipment. In fact, there are talks that India may buy the Russian Su-57 fighter jet, ignoring Trump’s offer to sale America’s F-35 jet.
This defiance by India has exposed the limits of Trump’s strategy to use tariff and trade deals as tools to force countries to accept his demands. While this strategy may have worked for other countries including the EU, this has clearly not worked for India.
Apart from Trump and his ardent supporters, the hypocrisy of selectively punishing only India for buying Russian oil is visible to the entire world. U.S. itself continues to buy various items from Russia, European countries continue to buy Russian oil and gas, and no punitive tariff has been imposed on China for buying the same Russian oil.
SCO Summit and revival of RIC Troika
The most significant global event to take place after Trump’s tariff assault was the SCO summit in Tianjin in China. While India has been a member of this Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, it was not seen as important for the country as BRICS of G20. Generally, India’s foreign ministers attended its summit, which has been considered to have more of a central Asian focus.
However, everything changed last month, as Prime Minister Modi decided to visit China after 7 years to attend the summit. The visuals of Narendra Modi, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin laughing and chatting together have become a global talking point.
The message from SCO summit was clear, the world is no longer US-centric, and alternative power centre is emerging. India, China, and Russia have made it clear that the US no longer calls the shots, and other countries will take their own decisions. Trump thought the economy of India will collapse under the burden of 50% tariff by USA, but that is not happening. India has made it clear that it is ready to shift its trade to other countries if US continues to blackmail.
Some major plans were discussed at the SCO summit, including the creation of a new SCO development bank, which will directly compete with western organisations like IMF and World Bank. Xi Jinping announced 2 billion RMB ($280m) in grants, along with another 10 billion RMB ($1.4bn) in loans for SCO members.
To improve ties with China, a traditional enemy of India, is a big step taken by the Modi govt to defy Trump. At the summit, there were talks of a new world order comprising the Global South, in a direct challenge to the United States.
Importantly, Russia has proposed to revive the old RIC (Russia India China) Troika. The RIC was envisioned as a strategic counterweight to US dominance after the end of the cold war. While China welcomes the proposal, India remains non-committal. But these developments have made it clear, India will move away from U.S., instead of capitulating, as Trump was expecting, if the bullying continues.
The RIC Troika may be revived or not, but one thing is clear, world has become multipolar, with Trump’s tariffs pushing countries with diverse interests to come together. Trump has given even traditional rivals like India and China reasons to come together against his own country. While India-China has started to revive around a year ago, the tariffs came as a big boost, giving the countries an immediate cause to form an alliance.
The SCO summit and the Modi-Xi-Putin meeting showed that it can emerge as a strong alternative to the American power. India, China and Russia hold the biggest potential for real economic shifts in the world, with the ability to offer the world an ability to withstand threats from Trump to impose financial penalties for defying the US.
Notably, apart from SCO, India, Russia and China are also members of the BRICS, and both these groups are now parallelly emerging as alternative power centre. While SCO is a Eurasian group, BRICS members are from various continents. But with common members of India, China and Russia, both groups can compete with the US-led Western powers.
India-EU ties
Another development that may be behind Trump’s climbdown is European Union nudging closer to India. While Trump has condemned India’s close ties with China and Russia displayed at the SCO summit, EU has no such opposition, and they are pushing towards improving India-EU relations.
On Wednesday, held a joint telephone call with President of the European Council Antonio Costa and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. The leaders welcomed progress in bilateral relations in key sectors such as trade, technology, investment, innovation, sustainability, defence, security and supply chain resilience, and reaffirmed the shared commitment for an early conclusion of the India-EU FTA negotiations and implementation of the IMEEC corridor.
Significantly, Ursula von der Leyen has said that India has an important role to play in ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. She posted on X, “We warmly welcome India’s continued engagement with President Zelenskyy. India has an important role to play in bringing Russia to end its war of aggression and helping create a path towards peace. This war carries global security consequences and undermines economic stability. So it is a risk to the entire world.”
She also said that India and EU plan to agree on a joint strategic agenda at the next EU–India summit, as early as possible in 2026. She added that they also remain fully committed to concluding the Free Trade Agreement negotiations by the end of the year.
Media Backlash
Trump’s attacks on India, including calling its economy “dead” and accusing Modi of “profiteering from chaos,” drew sharp criticism from both U.S. and Indian media. Analysts pointed out how a once-robust U.S.-India relationship is collapsing with Trump’s relentless attack on the country. Donald Trump and his tariff bravado has been subjects of memes and jokes in American late-night shows.
The Left-wing media in the U.S., always anti-Trump, are having the most fun dissecting his decisions and fact-checking his false and misleading claims, which he does on almost a daily basis. Even the right-wing media outlets are struggling to defend the policies, and are reporting how the tariffs are hitting U.S. consumers and businesses hard.
In India, where Trump was seen as a friend till a couple of months ago, the backlash has been even more pronounced. A giant Trump effigy was paraded in Maharashtra with placards branding him a “backstabber.” Such public humiliation, particularly for a person who thrives on a strongman image, has underscored the diplomatic cost of Trump’s rhetoric.
The media scrutiny has amplified perceptions of Trump’s foreign policy as erratic and divisive. His claim of brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, vehemently denied by New Delhi, further strained ties and painted him as out of touch with geopolitical realities.
Plummeting Approval Ratings
Perhaps the most pressing driver of Trump’s climbdown is his declining approval rating, with voters expressing frustration over rising costs and a lack of clear wins on the global stage. The latest numbers show that his approval rating is negative at -14%. Once buoyed by his supporters’ enthusiasm for his “America First” agenda, Trump now faces growing scepticism as economic challenges mount and foreign policy missteps pile up.
In contrast, Narendra Modi remains one of the world’s most popular leaders, with approval ratings exceeding 75%, according to Morning Consult.
Trump’s hostility toward India risked alienating not only a key ally but also the Indian-American community, a growing demographic in U.S. politics. While his stand on illegal immigrants was supported by India, now he and his aides have started to oppose visas granted to Indians, further eroding his support among Indian Americans, and other legal immigrants.
A Pragmatic Climbdown
Beyond domestic pressures, Trump’s apparent climbdown reflects a recognition of geopolitical realities. India’s refusal to bow to U.S. pressure on Russian oil purchases shows the tariff threat is not working. Trump’s tariff escalation was meant to punish India for its ties with Moscow, but it has instead pushed New Delhi closer to Beijing. This shift threatens U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific, where India is a critical counterweight to China.
With media increasingly questioning his ability to manage alliances, Trump’s reaffirmation of friendship with Modi is a calculated move to quiet critics and restore an image of diplomatic competence. By emphasising a “special relationship” with India, he seeks to shift the narrative away from confrontation and toward cooperation, even if the underlying tensions remain unresolved.
Trump’s softened stance is also be a tacit acknowledgment that his “America First” approach has limits in a multipolar world. By dialling back his criticism, Trump clearly aims to avoid completely alienating India. It is an attempt to stabilize ties with a key economic partner and mitigate further damage to U.S. industries reliant on bilateral trade.
By softening his rhetoric, Trump hopes to signal flexibility, potentially paving the way for renewed trade negotiations that could ease economic pressures at home.
Therefore, Trump’s climbdown from his anti-India rhetoric is a pragmatic response to a mixture of domestic and international pressures. A struggling U.S. economy, a faltering job market, relentless media criticism, and declining approval ratings have forced him to reconsider his approach to a key ally.
Tensions and uncertainties remain
While his reaffirmation of a “special relationship” with India and friendship with Modi signals a desire to stabilize ties, it does not erase the underlying tensions between India and the U.S. over trade, Russian oil, and differing geopolitical priorities. The 50% tariff on India’s exports to U.S. remains, the threats of even more tariffs if India does not stop buying from Russia have not been withdrawn. The bilateral trade deal remains stalled. Trump’s aides continue to make bizarre allegations against India, including that Brahmins are benefiting from Russian oil.
Moreover, with Trump, nothing is reliable. His stand keeps changing, he keeps making new announcements on social media. Therefore, despite good words for Modi, he may go ahead and impose more tariffs and sanctions on India.
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