Centre’s tactical reset in Manipur balances red lines and flexibility in peace talks

The Union Home Ministry is tactfully working to create a favourable framework for peaceful negotiations between the Kuki Zo and Meitei communities in Manipur, allowing both to feel heard, while drawing the line on non-negotiable aspects such as territorial integrity and strict adherence to the ceasefire in both letter and spirit. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected to visit Manipur by the end of next week, sources said efforts are being made to set the stage for fresh negotiations that are aimed at solving larger issues that have a bearing on peace and stability, not just within Manipur, but also on curbing insurgent activities across the Northeast.

 

 

Security officials said considerable balancing is going into addressing the concerns of both sides. The government is carefully crafting a way forward that signals flexibility in talks, offers elbow room to both sides, and accommodates certain political demands. At the same time, the Centre is making it clear that territorial inviolability and counterinsurgency strategy will remain the bedrock of a lasting solution in Manipur. 

 

“There is an unlined message for all insurgent groups across the Northeast. While it is a reiteration of the government’s stand and an integral part of the counterinsurgency strategy, the present approach will once again define the contours of a peace dialogue with insurgent groups,” said a senior security official. 

 

Firstly, the political divide has been sharply blunted by bringing the Kuki-Zo council to agree to the territorial integrity of Manipur. While this is being seen as a red line drawn by the government, there is also speculation on the implications of vesting powers over the territorial boundaries of Manipur with the central government.

 

“It seems to be an ingenious way of reiterating the issue of territorial integrity of Manipur without impinging on the powers of the central government on territorial matters,” says Kham Khan Suan Hausing, professor in the department of political science at the University of Hyderabad.

 

He said that the Kuki National Organisation and the United People’s Front, the conglomerate body of the Kuki-Zo militant groups, feel there is flexibility inherent in the text to allow them to raise the demand for Union territory status.

 

“By allowing it to be seen as a win-win for all sides, the government seems to have set the stage for the next step of a negotiated solution for lasting peace, where political demands can be raised without stepping outside the red lines,” said Hausing.

 

This has also been demonstrated in the way the tripartite meeting between representatives of the Centre, state and Kuki insurgent groups has taken place alongside the talks between the Kuki-Zo council and officials of the Ministry of Home Affairs. The political tensions have also had a bearing on the outcomes of the security dialogue that harps on stringent physical verification of KNO and UPF cadres by security forces and delisting of foreign nationals, if any. These have been the primary concerns of the then Biren Singh government and the Meitei groups, who have held that the Suspension of Operations with the militant groups from the Hills was not being implemented on the ground and was vulnerable to inimical elements from across the border.

 

As a first step, the relocation of the seven designated camps of KNO and UPF away from the areas vulnerable to conflict can help prevent clashes between the hill and valley. The heightened tensions in these areas have led to the creation of so-called “buffer zones” where central armed forces are deployed to maintain peace. The removal of the buffer zones can only be possible when face-to-face flashpoints are avoided, particularly during moments of strain in peace dialogues between the two sides.

 

“Sudden reactions and flare-ups are avoidable when the two sides are talking peace,” said an official involved in the peace dialogue. “The removal of these camps from the fringes of the hill and valley is a tactical step back, to create an enabling environment for peace and stability.”

 

However, there are some other key issues, like the timeline for the return of the displaced population, both in the hills and the valley, as they continue to live in makeshift camps.

 

There has to be a commitment from both sides, security sources said, to uphold the agreements and assist the displaced population in returning to their homes eventually. In the interim, the laying down of arms by the Meitei militant groups and the crackdown on the hill insurgents have helped reduce tensions and disarm the civilian population. 

 

The government’s next steps, observers say, will be closely watched. Much will depend on whether the new measures are effectively implemented on the ground—not as political optics but as part of a strategic balancing act aimed at clearing suspicion and building a durable peace.

 

India