Who Will Be Next Vice President? How Numbers Stack Up Ahead Of Poll

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is expected to win Tuesday's vice presidential election, although the margin of victory may not be as big as the past few polls, sources told NDTV this morning.

Therefore, the NDA, sources said, is tracking every vote.

The Vice President is chosen by all Members of Parliament via secret ballot. This means MPs' can vote as they wish, though in practice, they do so largely on party lines. However, cross-voting is common, with ex-Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Reddy's YSR Congress and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi of ex-Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao supporting the BJP, on ocassion, in the past.

In 2022, for instance, Jagdeep Dhankhar scored the biggest win in three decades after heavy support from across the aisle. This included votes from the YSR Congress and then Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal. Mr Dhankhar finished with nearly 75 per cent of the votes.

Cross-voting is likely to happen this time around too.

Vice President Election 2025: BJP's Numbers

At present there are 239 Rajya Sabha MPs and 542 Lok Sabha MPs, all of whom are eligible to vote. That puts the electorate at 781 and the majority mark at 391. The NDA has 425 MPs. On paper, therefore, the BJP's pick, Maharashtra Governor CP Radhakrishnan, is a clear winner.

And the ruling party is also confident, sources said, of support from outside the formal alliance, as in 2022. Jagan Reddy's YSR Congress, for example, has already backed Mr Radhakrishnan.

The YSRCP has 11 MPs - seven in the Rajya Sabha and four in the Lok Sabha.

Support from the BRS (four MPs) and the BJD (seven MPs) is unclear at this time.

Given internal turmoil - over the resignation of K Kavitha, party boss KCR's daughter, and a combative stance against both the BJP and Congress - the BRS is expected to abstain.

The BRS will also have an eye on the bypoll for the Jubilee Hills Assembly seat - where Muslim votes play a key role - that Maganti Gopinath, who died in June, won for it in 2018 and 2023.

The BJD is expected to offer support but this has not been confirmed, which suggests it is still undecided about backing the party that thumped it in last year's Assembly election.

Even so, even without the BRS and BJD, the NDA will have 436 votes.

And that number could inch up further.

Swati Maliwal is an Aam Aadmi Party Rajya Sabha MP. However, the relationship between the party and its MP broke down last year after she alleged physical abuse by AAP boss Arvind Kejriwal's aide.

There were rumours Ms Maliwal would quit and join the BJP, but those have failed to materialise and she refused to resign from her post. That sets up an intriguing subplot to Tuesday's election.

And then there is uncertainty over seven independent MPs in the Lok Sabha. Similar uncertainty swirls around the Akali Dal and the ZPM (from Mizoram), each of which has one MP.

If every vote turns up 'Radhakrishnan', the BJP's candidate could end up with 458 votes, much less than the 528 Mr Dhankhar secured three years ago but more than enough to win this poll.

Vice President Election 2025: Congress' Numbers

Meanwhile, across the aisle, the Congress-led opposition - the INDIA bloc - picked Supreme Court judge (retd) B Sudershan Reddy as its candidate.

Including both Houses, on paper the opposition has 324 votes in its column.

Now, straightaway this election will be tighter than 2022 because the opposition has significantly more MPs, thanks to a much stronger showing in last year's Lok Sabha election.

But that doesn't mean it has a realistic chance at winning. Even if 100 per cent of opposition MPs vote, and do so for Justice Reddy, he will still fall between 100 and 135 votes short.

That is unlikely to change even if the BRS and BJD turn around and votes for him, as do Swati Maliwal, all the independents and single-MP parties, and even the YSR Congress.

Even if all this happens, the INDIA bloc will still fall about 70 votes short.

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That already impossible task has been made even more so because sources in the ruling NDA told NDTV they expect at least 150 cross-votes in the Rajya Sabha alone.

The INDIA bloc has already admitted that it does not expect to win this election.

Sources said forcing a poll was largely an optics game - to underline the relative strength of the opposition vis-a-vis the last vice-presidential election and, hopefully, pick up momentum ahead of a critical run of Assembly polls this year and next, which include Bihar, Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

Vice President Election Explained

The election is conducted under the supervision of the Election Commission, which appoints a Returning Officer, typically a senior parliamentary official, to oversee the process.

A prospective candidate must secure at least 20 proposers and 20 seconders from among MPs to file a valid nomination. A security deposit of Rs 15,000 is also required.

Each MP ranks the candidates in order of preference, and a candidate must get simple majority, i.e., more than half the total valid votes to win.

If no candidate achieves this on first preferences, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes transferred based on next preferences. This continues until one candidate is elected.

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