Madagascar On Edge, Military Hints At Coup Amid Rising Protests Against President Rajoelina

Madagascar is facing a serious political crisis as protests intensify and elements within the military appear to challenge President Andry Rajoelina’s rule. On Sunday, the president warned of “an attempted illegal and forcible seizure of power,” following reports that soldiers from the elite CAPSAT unit were urging colleagues to support youth-led demonstrations that began on September 25. The unrest, triggered by shortages of water and electricity, has quickly escalated into widespread calls for the president’s resignation and major political reforms, marking the most significant threat to Rajoelina since his 2023 reelection.

The protests, inspired by "Gen Z-led movements" in countries like Kenya and Nepal, initially focused on basic services but have grown into broader anti-government demonstrations. CAPSAT soldiers, who helped Rajoelina rise to power in the 2009 coup, openly encouraged fellow troops to “support the people.” Social media videos on Saturday showed dozens of soldiers leaving barracks to guide thousands of protesters into May 13 Square in the capital, Antananarivo, a historic centre of political upheaval.

Violence has marred the unrest. Witnesses reported at least three injured when shots were fired near CAPSAT barracks, though no ongoing clashes were observed. Since September, the United Nations says at least 22 people have died and 100 others injured, while the Malagasy government contests these figures, with Rajoelina citing 12 deaths.

In response, the president called for unity among security forces and a defence of “constitutional order and national sovereignty.” It also encouraged dialogue to resolve tensions. Meanwhile, the prime minister and army chief of staff urged calm and civic engagement in discussions aimed at resolving the crisis.

As Madagascar navigates this volatile period, the combination of civilian protests and wavering military loyalty underscores the fragility of political stability in the country. International observers continue to monitor developments closely, highlighting the potential for further escalation if grievances remain unaddressed. The coming days are expected to be crucial in determining whether dialogue can restore calm or if tensions will spiral further.

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