From Quetta blasts to TLP marches: Pakistan’s internal security in tatters

In recent weeks, a series of seemingly disparate developments in Pakistan  have coalesced into a broader pattern of political and security upheaval,  revealing deepening fault lines along statecraft, street mobilisation, internal security, cross border tensions, political repression, and the nation’s hybrid governance.

Starting on 9 October, the pro-Palestine “Labbaik Ya Aqsa” long march, led by the Tahreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), a hyper-conservative, Punjab-centric religious party with historic ties to militant-friendly factions within the ISI’s political wing, departed Lahore for Islamabad. It was met with containers, tear gas, and a targeted mobile-data blackout. The state’s response, framed as a necessary security measure, was seen by rights groups as excessive and emblematic of a broader effort to mute dissent and manage narrative flow.

On 30 September in Quetta, a vehicle-borne blast at the Frontier Constabulary compound, followed by an armed assault, killed at least 10 and injured over 30. Though no group claimed responsibility at the time, the modus operandi mirrored attacks by Baloch separatists and hard-line militants opposed to both the state and Chinese interests in Balochistan. A paramilitary HQ was chosen as the target to bleed the security apparatus, spook investors, and puncture the “normalisation” narrative surrounding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

CCTV footage circulating on social media captured the precise moment of the explosion, a sudden fireball engulfing the roadway, tossing vehicles aside, and triggering chaos. This latest strike comes just weeks after a suicide bombing outside a stadium near Quetta, where supporters of a nationalist party were departing a rally. That attack claimed at least 13 lives and wounded over 30 others, further deepening the city’s sense of siege.

According to the Islamabad-based Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), the death toll in August marked a sharp escalation, with violence surging by 74% nationwide since July. The trend underscores a troubling reality: while Pakistan’s response remains swift, marked by kinetic operations and sweeping arrests, it continues to fall short of addressing the underlying causes.

Absent a parallel political track that delivers jobs, justice, and genuine local agency over mineral and hydropower revenues, Quetta will remain a flashpoint, where regional ambitions collide with entrenched local grievances.  Officials vowed development would continue, but each attack raises insurance premiums and political costs for a province already juggling insurgency, sectarian risk, and economic stagnation.

Simultaneously, the Pakistan military launched retaliatory operations in Orakzai following the killing of 11 soldiers, including high-ranking officers, in a fierce overnight clash with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants. The exchange of fire, which unfolded on the night of October 7–8 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a province straddling Pakistan’s long and volatile border with Afghanistan, marked one of the deadliest confrontations in recent months.

The army claimed to have killed 30 militants in intelligence-based operations, part of a broader campaign that resulted in over 200 Afghan fighters being neutralised in cross-border engagements. The military’s messaging, delivered through a visibly politicised DG ISPR briefing, was calibrated to project strength and resolve amid growing anxieties over Afghanistan’s alleged harboring of anti-Pakistan militant groups. Yet, the absence of granular detail and independent verification has left the public navigating a fog of war, where strategic ambiguity replaces clarity, and trust in official narratives continues to erode.

Amid this rising friction, a parallel diplomatic shift is quietly reshaping the region’s fault lines. On 10 October, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met Taliban Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in person for the first time, a symbolic moment underscoring a thaw in India-Taliban relations. India’s decision to upgrade its Technical Mission in Kabul to full embassy status further signals a recalibration of its engagement strategy in Afghanistan.

The juxtaposition is striking. While Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban deteriorates to the point of aerial strikes, reportedly including a bombing in Kabul on 9 October, India is opening diplomatic channels.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, political tremors deepened as Imran Khan, from behind bars, replaced Chief Minister Gandapur with Sohail Afridi. The move signaled a shift toward discipline and a more centralised counterterrorism track, but critics called it micromanagement. Khan’s jailhouse maneuvering underscored his enduring influence and intent to shape provincial politics despite incarceration.

Meanwhile, in “Azad” Jammu & Kashmir (AJK), a region-wide “shutter-down, wheel-jam” strike led by the JK Joint Awami Action Committee (JKJAAC) paralysed life from 29 September to 4 October. Protesters demanded an end to elite perks, reduced power tariffs tied to hydropower royalties, and the scrapping of 12 reserved “migrant” seats in the assembly. One person was killed, dozens were injured, and mobile/internet services were suspended. The government claimed it had met practical demands - cheaper flour and electricity. But protest leaders argued structural grievances around representation and resource rights were ignored.

Together, these developments reflect a high-stakes struggle for control, where street mobilization, terrorism, provincial reshuffling, cross-border tensions, and shifting neighborhood alliances have spun beyond the grasp of Pakistan’s hybrid establishment. Institutions, military, civilian government, and political parties are locked in a relentless battle of narratives, each attempting to define legitimacy, security, and sovereignty on its own terms. Yet the fallout continues to land on ordinary citizens: through lost connectivity, restricted movement, economic strain, and the persistent threat of violence. As Pakistan attempts to balance regional priorities with fragile international relationships, the domestic picture grows increasingly bleak. The World Bank’s latest report projects poverty rising to 25.3%, driven by economic stagnation, underemployment, and repeated crises. This is more than a moment of political turbulence; it is a test of institutional resilience and democratic space. As the country stands at a volatile crossroads, the question is where Pakistan is headed, and how long it can delay the reckoning it so urgently needs.

World