Pakistan in flames: Deciphering war on the borders and the unrest within

The month of October has been among the worst in the history of Pakistan. The state descended into chaos within and outside its borders with a brutal crackdown against civilians, and a worsening security crisis on its border with Afghanistan. Internal unrest in the country due to the anti-government demonstrations of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), the assassination of their leader, Saad Rizvi, and a growing descent in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) have ignited the flames of unrest. This is not a political tussle. It is a reckoning for a nation that once gambled its future on terror and deceit, and is now paying for every lie on which it built its power. Every front is in turmoil, its hold decaying faster than its deceit can hold.

War along the Durand Line

The Durand Line is once again bleeding with heavy casualties on both sides. The clashes lay bare the 2,640 km of chaos that Islamabad once called a border. The British line drawn in 1893 split Pashtun homes and families, and was never accepted by Afghanistan, and Pakistan can no longer defend it. The battle is older than the border itself. From Durrani's Empire to Khattak’s verses, the idea of one Pashtun nation has endured, outlasting empires, maps, and foreign hands that tried to divide it. Even today, tribes cross the line as if it doesn’t exist. The fire raging across Kunar and Waziristan isn’t just over posts or patrols; it’s the old Pashtun question rising again from the ashes of empire.

The conflict highlights the failure of Islamabad to control its western frontier, where displaced tribespeople of Pakistan live and militants who are still generating internal conflict reside. The trigger was a Pakistani airstrike inside Afghanistan targeting TTP, once hailed as a “good Taliban.” The government of Afghanistan has threatened to engage in an increased conflict in case of failure in diplomacy, and threatens a possible expansion of the conflict. The border turmoil contributes to the strategic fragility and internal conflict of Pakistan.

TLP and internal unrests

The situation is even more flammable within Pakistan. The TLP, which is the outlawed Islamist party, has become the focal force of opposition to the government and the military establishment. The party, headed by Saad Rizvi, 31 years old, who took over the party leadership from his father, has organised massive anti-government and pro-Palestine demonstrations in Punjab province, especially in Lahore and Muridke. Such protests have become violent during the crackdown by security forces. The alleged killing of Saad Rizvi at Muridke lit the fuse; what followed was not a protest, but an uprising. The protesters have fought with police, blocked roads, set fire to vehicles, and crippled large cities, compelling schools and businesses to close. When the army rolled into Muridke, it wasn’t to protect; it was to punish. The streets turned into battlegrounds between the state and citizens, including not only against ethnic minorities such as Pashtuns or Balochs, but also the elite Punjabis. The confrontations have resulted in the killing and injury of security forces and demonstrators. Dozens of civilians have been detained. These incidents reveal the weaknesses of Pakistan and the increasing involvement of the army in stifling any form of dissent, even in the Punjab, a traditional power seat.

To further destabilise Pakistan, massive anti and pro-protests in support of Palestinians and against the US brokered Israel-Hamas ceasefire have rocked the nation, organised by the Islamist political forces, including the TLP and Jamaat-e-Islami. Hundreds of thousands of Pakistani people have gone to the streets in protest and hoisted Palestinian flags, denouncing Israel, and expressing vehement anti-Western sentiments. The demonstrations have turned into an instrument of Islamist political ambitions, at the same time unsettling the already fragile situation.

Protests in POK

The protests in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are an outburst of years of resentment against exploitation and repression. A region Pakistan calls “Azad” has no real freedom; its people are denied political representation, silenced by force, and stripped of resources that feed Punjab’s prosperity. From East Pakistan to today’s peripheries, Pakistan’s history is one of crushing dissent and branding its own citizens as traitors. Its claims about human rights in Kashmir ring hollow when its own hands are stained with the blood of its citizens and brutalities. The world can no longer ignore this hypocrisy. India must call out Pakistan’s crimes against its own people to the UNHRC.

Multi-faceted crisis of Pakistan

A bleak scenario is depicted by the concerted confluence of the Durand Line war and internal strife. Pakistan is losing a battle at several levels: externally, Pakistan is exposed to conflict with Afghanistan; internally, Pakistan is forced to face political unrest and religious insurgency. The fact that it uses violence to suppress its own citizens in Muridke and elsewhere is an indication that there is a dangerous escalation where ethnic and regional divisions become mixed with political insurgency. The political class is comatose; Parliament irrelevant, judiciary discredited, economy in freefall. Even the army’s business empire now trembles. 

The fact that the legal community and Gen Z Pakistanis are participating in such protests signifies the growing disillusionment with the establishment and the need to change. The appearance of security forces and war-like situations in cities is a viral imagery of a state in crisis, a state that is losing its legitimacy and control.

Regional stability and implications to India

The internal unrest in Pakistan and the war on the Durand Line have far-reaching effects on the stability of the region, particularly for India. The wars within and outside its borders threaten the capacity of the country to maintain stability. In the past, such internal turmoil has often led to diverting attention by brewing a proxy war in India to keep the image of the Pakistan Army as a defender of the ideology of Pakistan. This poses the risk of spillover and cross-border terrorism. India will be required to be vigilant and maintain operational readiness. Operation Sindoor showed the fragility of peace with Pakistan and how the strategic equilibrium can be altered by Islamabad.

Prognosis

Pakistan is a nation that is crumbling under the pressure of internal repression, external conflict and political insurrections. The ideal situation of a military coup and/ or spill-over effect on the Indian side. The case of the Durand Line reveals the strategic weaknesses of Islamabad; the TLP rebellion and the protests of the masses reflect internal destruction and failure of the state. The military brutality towards its citizens, not only marginalised population but also the heartland of Punjab, is a new disturbing shift and a sign of the increased instability.

The flames rising from Muridke and the explosions along the Durand Line are part of the same story. Pakistan is burning from within and beyond. And unless it finds a way to douse both fires at once, the map itself may soon begin to melt. The world must watch this rogue nation where war, faith, and failure collide because when Pakistan burns, the heat is felt in South Asia.

Defence