Trump's oil statement rocks markets: India's Russian crude dilemma

US President Donald Trump’s statement that Prime Minister Narendra Modi  had assured him that India would stop buying oil from Russia had a ripple effect in the oil industry, which saw the price of Brent crude oil rising above $62 per barrel. This comes as India responded to Trump’s statement that its  priority was to “safeguard the interests of the Indian consumer in a volatile energy scenario” and would diversify its sourcing while ensuring stable energy prices and secure supplies.

Trump’s statement at the Oval Office spooked oil prices to rise from a five-month low, with Brent trading above $62 a barrel after sliding 2.2% over the  previous two sessions, while West Texas Intermediate was near $59, according to Bloomberg.

India and China are the two top buyers of sanctioned Russian oil, and New Delhi has continued the purchases despite the US sanctions.

Market experts say this is positive news for crude oil prices as one big buyer would be out of the picture. “This is bullish news for sure,” Mukesh Sahdev, founder and chief executive officer of analysis firm Xanalysts in Sydney, told to  Bloomberg.

“India has been buying about three times as much oil from Russia as from the US in recent months, and would need to source alternatives from Middle Eastern nations to completely halt those purchases,” he said.

Meanwhile, there are reports that Russian oil exports to India could drop. Refiners are awaiting official instructions from New Delhi. According to reports, refiners have not yet received any instructions from the Centre in this regard, but state-owned Indian Oil Corporation and privately-held Reliance Industries Ltd. are now assessing their crude-buying practices, according to Bloomberg.

That said, sources told Reuters that it would be difficult to immediately stop buying Russian oil as a sudden switch to buying other crudes would drive up global oil prices and threaten to stoke inflation.

India imported 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian crude from April to September. However, its share fell to about 36 per cent from 40 per cent during the same period last year, according to government data.

India's U.S. crude imports rose 6.8% on year, but it is still 4.3% of imports. The  share of Middle Eastern oil in the six months to September 2025 rose to 45% from 42%, the data showed.

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