Nuapada assembly bypoll: Will Odisha BJP government fail its litmus test as BJD, Congress hope for win?

With the nomination withdrawal date for Nuapada assembly bypoll ending on Friday, the political scene in this western Odisha constituency is set to heat up ahead of the November 11 election.

No nomination was withdrawn and all the 14 candidates who were cleared by the poll panel will remain in the fray. This is the first byelection that Odisha is facing after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, which ended Biju Janata Dal supremo Naveen Patnaik’s 24 years regime and led to the formation of the first BJP government in the state.

Odisha BJP's litmus test

The byelection was necessitated after the death of BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia in Chennai in September 2025 following an illness. He had represented the constituency four times and had been a cabinet minister under Naveen Patnaik. Since BJD is now the main opposition party of state and BJP is in power both at the Centre and in the state, Nuapada byelection has turned into a litmus test for the state’s shifting political alignments. The Congress has also become ambitious and aggressive.

Usually, byelections go in favour of the ruling party. But last year’s Lok Sabha and assembly elections saw BJD losing despite Patnaik's popularity because people thought he was no longer in control of the government and the party because of his failing health. Voters also felt that Patnaik’s all-powerful former private secretary and Tamilnadu-born former IAS officer V.K.Pandian may usurp power.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other leaders harped on the issue, raising the bogey of “Odia ashmita” (pride), which worked in BJP's favour. BJD could not win a single Lok Sabha seat. Even Patnaik was defeated in Kantabanji assembly seat in Bolangir, though he won from his original Hinjli assembly seat in south Odisha’s Ganjam district with a negligible margin. BJD’s overall vote margin in assembly election was somewhat one per cent higher but BJP got the winning number to form the government.

However, there was a general sympathy for Patnaik after he lost power. But BJD has not been able to perform as an aggressive opposition party after BJP formed its first government in Odisha under tribal leader Mohan Charan Majhi.

Triangular contest

Patnaik had developed health problems and he had to go to Mumbai for a major spinal operation. Later he was hospitalised in Bhubaneswar for other complications. Though he is the Leader of Opposition in the assembly, he hardly attends the sessions. On the other hand, PM Modi has visited Odisha seven times since the swearing-in of the BJP ministry in the state. BJD has also developed internal problems as there is a general impression that Pandian still controls the party. His Odia IAS officer wife Sujata Kartikyan has taken voluntary retirement, which has led to further speculations.

In this scenario, the Congress under its new state president Bhakta Charan Das, a dalit leader from Kalahandi, has tried to turn it into a vibrant opposition party. Besides raising issues like crime against women, the party has held several public outreach meetings, including one that was addressed by Rahul Gandhi. Congress has put all its machinery to work in view of Nuapada bypolls while the CPI(M) has backed the party's candidate. This makes the upcoming byelection a triangular battle.

Strong candidates

That ruling BJP wants to somehow win the byelection could be understood when it took away BJD’s expected candidate Jay Dholakia, the adopted son of the late MLA. The main intention of fielding him in the election was to garner sympathy votes in the backdrop of his father's passing. The BJD then chose former minister Snehangini Chhuria from Bargarh as its candidate.

The Congress has fielded Ghasiram Majhi, a tribal leader, who contested from Nuapada in 2024 as an independent and finished second. The BJP said this byelection will be a test of its governance and ability to deliver in the early phase of its government. Chief Minister Majhi has announced projects worth Rs 1,100 crore in the constituency ahead of the bypolls.

Senior leaders of all the three parties are expected to campaign in Nuapada. Since there has been a BJD base there, the party can give a strong fight to ruling BJP. However, it remains to be seen if Patnaik will campaign in the bypolls.

Nuapada has a large tribal electorate and is in western Odisha where regional identity and development are important factors.

Why victory is important for each party?

If BJD manages to retain the seat, it sends a message that despite being out of power, the party still commands grassroot strength and has the capacity to fight back. It will also revive hope among its cadre that BJD can be in comeback trail. On the flip side, a defeat would raise questions about party’s future and internal bickering may get worse.

A victory for BJP would bolster the ruling party's claim to be the dominant political force in Odisha, consolidating its recent takeover of power. A defeat would affect its credibility and would embolden the opposition. Since the government is yet to complete two years in power, a defeat in byelection would affect its moral authority and will raise doubts about its “new-government momentum”.

Though long peripheral in Odisha, a strong showing by the Congress would help the party establish that it remains a player. If it fails badly, it could deepen its marginalisation in the state. In short, Nuapada byelection is not merely a local contest. It has state-wide implications for power dynamics in Odisha.

India