OPINION | Quad In Doldrums, Make Space For G2

Many argue that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s absence from the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur was a step in the right direction. While that argument remains debatable, the question that arises here is whether, by visiting Malaysia and having even a brief pull-aside with US President Donald Trump, India would have been able to rescue the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, from entering the doldrums. If Modi had attended the ASEAN Summit in the Malaysian capital, he may not have been able to finalise the trade deal with the United States for sure, but he could have at least been able to make an assessment of how serious the current Trump administration is on continuing with the Quad after it showed a renewed vigour in January, when Trump came back to the White House.

When President Trump came back to power in January, the foreign ministers of the Quad group of countries – the United States, India, Australia and Japan – met in Washington DC and decided to hold the next Quad Leaders’ Summit under India’s chairmanship even as they gave a strong signal to China by way of saying that the Quad countries “strongly oppose any unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion.” Hours before the meeting, Trump announced on social media, “G2 will be convening shortly.”

While the Quad initiative began on a positive note under Trump 2.0, seven months later, it appears that President Trump is not only disinterested in the Quad but is also willing to go to great lengths to appease China and its President Xi Jinping. In his relentless pursuit of trade deals, particularly with China, Trump has referred to Xi as the "great leader of a great country.”

Quite interestingly, the January meeting was also followed up with another meeting of the Quad foreign ministers in order to give shape to a brand new agenda that will largely be palatable to the United States. Therefore, the Quad in July 2025 launched the ‘Quad Critical Minerals Initiative’ that sought to secure and diversify critical mineral supply chains. The agenda of the Quad, which the Chinese used to call “Asian NATO”, was shrunk to four broader items – Maritime and Transnational Security, Economic Prosperity and Security, Critical and Emerging Technology and Humanitarian Assistance and Emergency Response.

From India’s perspective, the Quad Ports of the Future Partnership was the biggest takeaway, as it meant exchanging information and best practices while building a robust maritime connectivity and infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific. Indian ports today lag behind in scale, infrastructure, and overall capacity compared to a maritime powerhouse like China. Due to its strategic coastline, India can follow China’s model of port clusters by establishing a systematic network of ports, which will include the integration of islands and coastal regions into a large shipping complex connected to the mainland by state-of-the-art infrastructure, according to a KPMG report.

G2 Summit vs Quad Summit

By openly calling the bilateral meeting he held with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, as the “G2 Summit”, President Trump has indicated that he believes China is the only other nation capable of negotiating from a position of strength. This perspective emphasises the significance of the U.S.-China relationship in global negotiations.

International commentators are already lauding the Trump-Xi meeting as a “historic Busan Summit”, highlighting its potential impact on U.S.-China relations and global trade dynamics. Although no formal trade agreement was finalised during this encounter, indications from the U.S. suggest a possible reduction in tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and enhancement of trade in agricultural goods. This willingness to consider tariff reductions could signal a step toward easing trade tensions, as both countries navigate the complexities of their economic partnership.

“I had a truly great meeting with President Xi of China. There is enormous respect between our two countries, and that will only be enhanced with what just took place. We agreed on many things, with others, even of high importance, being very close to being resolved,” Trump said at the end of his meeting with Xi.

For China this is not just a win in their bilateral ties with the US, but for Beijing this was also about breaking the strategic closeness between Washington and New Delhi.

Let us not forget amongst all his statements what Trump said earlier this month. He said Modi is a “great man, he loves Trump… I don’t want to destroy his (Modi’s) political career. I have watched India for years. It's an incredible country, and every single year you would have a new leader. My friend has been there now for a long time.”

This was a clear threat made to India by the United States just days before the ASEAN Summit was held.

Nicholas Burns, former U.S. Ambassador to China, recently said in an interview that Beijing used to “fear” the Quad, but now America, under Trump, is “giving that way.” This was reason enough for Prime Minister Modi to be in Malaysia, where leaders of all crucial Indo-Pacific countries came together along with Trump.

The Ministry of External Affairs has recently said that Quad is a “valuable forum” for India. If that is the case, then Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Malaysia would have solidified that thinking in India’s foreign policy stance.

Had Prime Minister Modi held a meeting with President Trump in Malaysia, maybe he could have extracted a promise on Quad. While it’s possible that he wouldn’t have been able to secure the crucial momentum needed to finalise the trade deal, given his close relationship with Trump, there's a strong possibility that India could have at least received a commitment regarding the Quad initiative. This would have allowed New Delhi to claim credit for sustaining the continuity and effectiveness of this important grouping. Ultimately, engaging with Trump could have positioned India favourably on the global stage and demonstrated its commitment to international collaboration.

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Nayanima Basu is a senior independent journalist.

[Disclaimer: The opinions, beliefs, and views expressed by the various authors and forum participants on this website are personal and do not reflect the opinions, beliefs, and views of ABP News Network Pvt Ltd.]

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