Cautious diplomacy around Trump

IN the glittering corridors of Kuala Lumpur’s convention centres, where Southeast Asia’s leaders converged to chart a multipolar future, an empty chair spoke volumes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi – the indefatigable globetrotter who has crisscrossed continents to etch India’s imprint on the world – addressed the 47th ASEAN Summit and the 22nd ASEAN-India Summit virtually.

His conspicuous absence has fuelled fervent speculation. Is Delhi dodging a diplomatic dust-up with Donald Trump, the brash American bulldozer barreling back into Asia’s arena? From New Delhi’s vantage, this absence isn’t mere scheduling sleight-of-hand. It’s a calculated sidestep in a high-stakes tango with Washington, where economic edicts masquerade as alliances and trusted ties to Moscow are twisted into treason.

Modi’s ASEAN odyssey has been a hallmark of his hyperactive foreign policy. Since assuming office in 2014, he has attended most ASEAN-India Summits – in person or virtually – transforming a once-peripheral partnership into a powerhouse pact worth about $120-130 billion in annual trade. But the forum has also become a stage where clashing egos can turn consensus into confrontation.

Two of the world’s most influential leaders – Prime Minister Modi and President Donald Trump of the US – seem locked in a peculiar diplomatic dance of avoidance. Both command nations that claim to be the torchbearers of democracy and free enterprise, yet neither appears willing to confront the other in person. The Kuala Lumpur meeting, where Trump appeared and Modi chose to participate only virtually, has become the latest symbol of this uneasy relationship between two statuesque but increasingly mistrustful leaders.

The Summit, hosted by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, is a critical forum bringing together the 10 ASEAN member states — Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar — along with dialogue partners such as India, China, Japan, Australia and the US. The theme of ‘Connectivity and Resilience’ underscores its focus on economic recovery, maritime cooperation, and digital integration in the Indo-Pacific. India, through its Act East policy, has long viewed the ASEAN as a central pillar of its regional outreach. That is why Modi’s absence from Kuala Lumpur stands out as a significant departure from his usual diplomatic pattern.

Since 2014, Modi has been a consistent fixture at ASEAN-India and East Asia Summits, attending either physically or virtually. Records from ASEAN and India’s Ministry of External Affairs show regular participation from the 12th Summit in Nay Pyi Taw (2014) through the 21st Summit (2024). He has used these meetings to advance India’s economic integration with Southeast Asia, reinforce strategic partnerships, and position New Delhi as a balancing voice in a region caught between Chinese assertiveness and American unpredictability. The official justification from New Delhi has been that the Prime Minister’s schedule is crowded with the Bihar Assembly elections and post-Diwali engagements.

But such reasoning does not withstand scrutiny. A more convincing interpretation lies in the geopolitical shadow cast by Trump’s attendance at the summit. Modi and Trump have not met face-to-face since their brief and awkward Washington encounter in early 2025, which ended without a joint statement or a concrete trade deal. Their relationship, once celebrated as warm, has cooled dramatically.

Economic pain

Trump’s acerbic remarks have repeatedly embarrassed India. His public boast that he personally “stopped an India-Pakistan war” after a terror attack drew sharp reactions in New Delhi. His claim that Modi privately promised to reduce Russian oil imports was pointedly ignored by Indian officials – signalling rising tensions.

Beyond rhetoric, Trump’s policies have inflicted tangible economic pain. The US has raised tariffs on Indian exports – in some categories reaching as high as 50 per cent – citing “unfair trade practices”. The energy sector has also been caught in the crossfire. India’s dependence on Russian crude, which accounts for nearly one-third of its total oil imports, has collided with Washington’s sanctions regime. Trump’s decision to target Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil has thrown Indian refiners into uncertainty, complicating payments and insurance. His insistence that nations buying Russian oil are “indirectly funding aggression” has been aimed squarely at New Delhi.

Meanwhile, the so-called “reset” diplomacy between Delhi and Washington has yielded little. The gap between rhetoric and reality has widened into a visible gulf. Within this strained atmosphere, Modi’s physical appearance alongside Trump at Kuala Lumpur would have been fraught with risk.

Unnecessary spectacle

A single impulsive remark by the American President could have dominated global headlines and undermined India’s carefully calibrated position on trade and energy. By staying away, Modi shields himself from an unnecessary diplomatic spectacle. His virtual participation ensures that India’s voice is present – but not exposed.

Yet, this approach has a personal cost for the Prime Minister. Modi’s political identity has been built on the projection of confidence and global omnipresence. To retreat from a major summit where he has always been a visible force invites questions about India’s diplomatic nerve.

In foreign policy, absence can sometimes speak louder than attendance. Predictably, Modi has been targeted by Opposition parties. They claim that Modi, who once stood shoulder to shoulder with global leaders, is now avoiding them. They point to his silence on Trump’s repeated exaggerations and accuse him of bending to external pressure. For a leader who built his image on muscular nationalism and global assertiveness, the perception of evasiveness is politically costly.

Modi’s virtual attendance at the ASEAN-India Summit can thus be read as a temporary tactic in a larger diplomatic dilemma. It avoids immediate embarrassment but highlights a growing unease in India’s foreign policy posture. His absence denies India the chance to strengthen its partnerships with key Southeast Asian leaders such as Anwar Ibrahim and Ferdinand Marcos Jr. These personal interactions often yield more than formal speeches. By missing them, India forfeits a measure of influence in a region central to its long-term interests.

Predictability erosion

This episode also underscores the erosion of predictability in India-US relations. Trump’s slapdash style has unsettled allies and antagonised competitors alike. His economic nationalism and transactional diplomacy have replaced cooperation with confrontation. Modi, on the other hand, has chosen restraint and balance. Their contrasting temperaments have turned once-celebrated camaraderie into cautious detachment.

But the world can ill afford a prolonged silence between the leaders of two major democracies. Global trade, energy security and regional stability all depend on credible coordination between Washington and New Delhi.

The time may soon come when Modi will have to move beyond tactical prudence and confront Trump’s bullying style. India, the world’s largest democracy, cannot afford to appear intimidated by the richest one. Leadership, after all, is not measured by the number of summits attended, but by the courage to stand firm when the stage is most uncertain.

Modi’s virtual presence may keep him out of Trump’s reach for now, but it also keeps him out of the centre of the world’s most important conversation. The question is not whether Modi will meet Trump, but when he will once again lead the charge to assert India’s voice where it matters most – in the real arena of global diplomacy, not behind a digital curtain.

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