How Big a Threat is Pakistan to India Today?

By : B. S. DARA
bsdar@gmail.com
When India and Pakistan were born together in 1947, both stood at the same starting line. The world expected two new nations to find their way through hardship into stability. But seven decades on, the difference is stark. One has become the fifth-largest economy in the world, a global technology hub, and a resilient democracy. The other is a near-failed state, debt-ridden, politically fractured, ruled not by its people but by its generals. And yet, that failing state continues to pose one of the sharpest security challenges to India.
The paradox of Pakistan is simple.It cannot feed its people but can still arm its proxies. It cannot keep its governments stable but can keep its terror factories running. It cannot win wars against India but can bleed India with attacks from Pulwama to Pahalgam. The question is no longer whether Pakistan is strong. The question is how can a weak Pakistan still be a dangerous Pakistan?
Every democracy has its share of turbulence. But in Pakistan, turbulence is the system. Not a single civilian government has ever completed a full term. Elected leaders are overthrown, jailed, or exiled at the will of generals in Rawalpindi. Military coups have punctuated every era, from Ayub Khan to Zia-ul-Haq to Pervez Musharraf. Even today, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif governs in name, while the Pakistan Army and its intelligence wing, the ISI, pull the strings.
This militarization has robbed Pakistan of development. Instead of building universities, it built bombs. Instead of creating jobs, it created jihadists. Today, the nation is drowning in debt, with the IMF dictating survival packages. Forty percent of Pakistanis live below the poverty line. Regions like Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are in open revolt. In Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, demands for freedom echo against an indifferent state.
Women remain shackled by medieval codes. Honor killings, public lashings, and stonings continue. A generation of youth without jobs raids graves for valuables. And the world has not forgotten the day Osama bin Laden, the world’s most wanted terrorist, was found comfortably living in Abbottabad under the nose of the Pakistan Army.
By every metric of governance, Pakistan is a disaster. And yet, it is a disaster that still exports violence across its borders.
If there is one arena where Pakistan has “excelled,” it is in weaponizing terrorism as state policy. The list of attacks on India is long and bloody:Kargil, 1999, Pakistani soldiers, dressed as militants, tried to seize Indian peaks. India took them back at great cost.Parliament Attack, 2001, A direct assault on the symbol of Indian democracy.Mumbai 26/11, 2008, A night of horror as Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists killed 166 civilians.Uri, 2016, Soldiers ambushed in their own camp.Pulwama, 2019, Forty CRPF personnel martyred in a suicide bombing, triggering India’s Balakot airstrike.Each time, the trail of planning, training, and financing led back to Pakistan. Groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen operate freely under the patronage of the ISI. Pakistan calls them “non-state actors,” but the world knows they are state projects.
This is the threat India cannot dismiss, not a full-fledged war, but the constant bleeding through terror strikes designed to destabilize, humiliate, and distract.
The second reason Pakistan remains dangerous is China. Through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Beijing has pumped billions into Pakistani roads, ports, and power plants. On paper, this is infrastructure development. In reality, it is debt-trap diplomacy. Pakistan owes China more than it can repay, and in exchange Beijing gains leverage.More worrying for India, China now offers Pakistan technological and strategic cover. Reports suggest Chinese intelligence and radar support helped Pakistan detect Indian air movements during Operation Sindoor. For Beijing, Pakistan is a convenient pressure point against India. For Islamabad, China is the only big brother left to run to.
For decades, India’s response to Pakistani provocations was cautious. After the Parliament attack in 2001 and the Mumbai attack in 2008, India exercised what was called “strategic restraint.” The logic was to avoid escalation in a nuclear neighborhood. But Pakistan interpreted restraint as weakness.That script changed under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. After Uri, India conducted surgical strikes across the Line of Control. After Pulwama, India bombed Balakot. The doctrine was clear, terrorism will be treated as an act of war. Retaliation will not stop at the border.
This has raised the cost for Pakistan’s terror strategy. The old days of impunity are over. A new red line has been drawn.
Globally, Pakistan’s standing has eroded. The Gulf, once its financial cushion, now courts India as a partner in trade, investment, and security. Saudi Arabia and the UAE openly honour India’s Prime Minister at summits. The Financial Action Task Force has repeatedly cornered Pakistan for terror financing.
Meanwhile, India’s global rise has been unmistakable. It is courted by Washington, maintains historic ties with Moscow, partners with Israel on defense, and is a key player in the Quad alongside Japan and Australia. It has hosted the G20. Its diaspora is influential across the world.Yet, Pakistan has a talent for exploiting cracks. India’s oil trade with Russia has caused friction with the U.S. Pakistan whispers in Washington that it can still be useful. Each geopolitical rift is a chance for Islamabad to beg for new loans, to stay afloat a little longer.
It is striking to remember that India and Pakistan began the same year, the same month, the same midnight. And yet their foreign policies are worlds apart.India’s foreign policy today is about growth, technology, trade, global alliances. It balances between great powers while advancing its own rise. Pakistan’s foreign policy begins and ends with one word: India. Every move, toward China, Turkey, even the U.S., is about countering India. This obsession has crippled its global credibility. While India looks outward, Pakistan looks across the border and seethes.
So how big is the Pakistani threat to India today? Let us be clear. Pakistan cannot defeat India in a conventional war. Its economy is too weak, its military no match, its state too fragile. India’s armed forces are larger, better trained, and backed by a far stronger economy.
The real threat is threefold:Terrorism. A single attack can shake domestic stability and international perception.China’s Backing. A weakened Pakistan with a powerful patron becomes harder to ignore.Nuclear Blackmail. The ever-present shadow of escalation, even if India’s deterrence is strong.In short, Pakistan may not be able to win against India, but it can still hurt India. And hurting, not winning, has always been its strategy.
India, however, is no longer the hesitant nation of the 1990s. It is a confident state with the capacity to fight on multiple fronts, secure its borders, and retaliate across them. It has the economic muscle to withstand shocks, the diplomatic clout to isolate adversaries, and the military strength to deter misadventures.The Modi government has sent a blunt message, if you strike India, India will strike back harder, inside your house if necessary. That clarity itself is a deterrent.
Pakistan today is not India’s equal. It is not even close. Economically, militarily, diplomatically, the gap is a chasm. But a dangerous neighbour does not have to be strong, it only has to be reckless. And Pakistan has built its entire identity around recklessness.
For India, the challenge is twofold.To guard against Pakistan’s terrorism, and to keep its own rise undistracted. Pakistan thrives on distraction. India thrives on focus. One nation has wasted decades on vengeance, the other has invested decades in growth.
History will record the difference. But for now, India cannot take its eyes off Pakistan, not because Pakistan is strong, but because even a weakened Pakistan can still be deadly.

 

 

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