Xi- A Paranoid Dictator

Harsha Kakkar
harshakakararticles.com

Dictators rule and die by the gun. Few are lucky to escape into oblivion, as their mere presence can impact those who replace them, unless they follow a system of smooth turnover after a fixed period of reign and respect their predecessors. Until Xi, China was governed by collective leadership and every head of state had a maximum of two terms of five years each. But he was determined to change it and he has, ignoring the impact this is having on the nation.
There is no democracy within China but a one-man rule, whose decisions are pushed by those loyal to him. When he assumed the mantle in 2012, Xi began removing all who were loyal to his predecessor, Hu Jintao. Since it takes time to consolidate power, the process was initially slow, gaining momentum as time passed. Like all dictators, as he gained control, Xi began believing he was untouchable. He changed all existing rules to ensure he is anointed dictator for life.
Such was his arrogance that he even insulted Hu Jintao in public, something never seen earlier in China, where previous heads of state are revered. In Oct 2022, at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, Hu Jintao was escorted out of the hall by Xi’s security staff, in the full glare of cameras, looking visibly confused and upset. His attempt to carry some papers was blocked by Xi. None got up to help him, fearing Xi’s wrath.
All dictators also possess a paranoia of being overthrown. Xi is no exception.The first action they take is being selfish byensuring that there is no successor announced and this is what Xi has done. The fact that such a scenario could lead to a power struggle, post his demise or removal, is of no concern. This is a copybook from Stalin and Mao Zedong.
Only two actions can remove a dictator. The first is a mass uprising and the second is powerful members of the armed forces aligning against him resulting in his removal. In 2022, Xi was compelled to back down from his infamous ‘Zero COVID’ policy following widespread public protests, along side rising economic and health costs. This was a surprise, as Xi had vowed to adhere to it, despite everything.
If Xi would have refused, the uprising could have created an environment to dethrone him by forcing the PLA to join hands with the protestors. Protests in a dictatorial state, where every aspect of life is controlled by the centre, is alarming and Xi was forced to concede to remain in power. Those who masterminded the protests subsequently vanished, never to be heard off again.
As far as the military is concerned, a paranoid leader surrounds himself with sycophants, as also builds a system of distrust amongst the hierarchy by creating rival factions, which continue vying for power, ensuring there is no unity against the dictator. A battle to remain within the inner circle of the leader is perpetual. In such a scenario, the leader is fed with information on those either planning his ouster or aligning with rival camps. Professionalism gives way to sycophancy, perceived as loyalty, especially at apex levels.
The result is a continuous cycle of purges. Currently, in the PLA, even Xi’s own handpicked appointees, including defence ministers and senior officials have been jailed. The PLA has faced increased purges since 2023, largely on charges of corruption. Thus far, reports mention that approximately five million members of the government, at varying levels, have been arrested for corruption or near similar reasons.
Whether there is genuine corruption within the PLA, or is it distrust,may never be known.Punishing officials for corruption, an epidemic which had permeated every level of the state, including the PLA, did give Xi initial popularity. Currently, his motives are being questioned, especially as it only appears to target only senior leadership of the PLA.
Courts in China dance to the tune of the leader. None arrested for corruption has ever been set free. Many have been awarded the death penalty. None has been seen again and all have admitted to their crime before the trial.
It is more likely that the ongoing anti-corruption or anti-disciplinary drive is an excuse to remove those whose loyalty is doubted. Charges of corruption are currently giving way to ‘disciplinary violations’ and ‘duty-related crimes,’ as it happened in the case of GeneralHe Weidong, a member of the Politburo, Vice Chairman of the CMC, and the second senior most member in China’s military hierarchy.
China remains a secretive society where little of what happens inside truly emerges. As per Claude Arpi there are as many as nine senior Generals missing in recent months, including the head of the Western Theatre Command. Whether they have been purged or fallen in disfavour is unknown. Normally the announcement of their arrest is made months after disappearance. Despite placing his closest confidantes in the right appointments, Xi remains paranoid.
Some who have been arrested are subsequently reported to have committed suicide. Whether they did or were eliminated will never be known. It is also possible that there is rising discontentment within the PLA, which is unacceptable, as Xi banks on the PLA to keep him in power. Xi’s actions have created fear amongst the top hierarchy, as to who would be next. Professionalism is no longer the mantra of the PLA leadership, it is survival.
Xi broke all rules in place for decades and hence would have groups seeking his ouster. Whether it happens is anybody’s guess. In his thirteen-year reign, Xi has gained control of every aspect of China. He placed his own trusted people in key appointments only to subsequently have them arrested under some pretext. Either his initial selection was wrong or paranoia is getting the better of him.
The reality is that no matter who is the Chinese leader, its approach to major issues, Taiwan, US, South China Sea and India are historic and would remain the same. Whoever comes to power will make no major change to policies. Even Xi’s removal, when it happens, will be announced as resignation due to ill health. China would never desire that the world consider it a tinpot dictatorship.
The author is Major General (Retd)

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