Bihar polls | As BJP eyes CM seat, could Nitish Kumar's 'Aaya Ram, Gaya Ram' politics threaten PM Modi's third term?

As the voting for the 2025 Bihar assembly polls concluded on Tuesday, exit polls have predicted a clean sweep for the National Democratic Alliance this time also.  However, it needs to be seen whether the Bharatiya Janata Party will 'graciously' give away the chief minister seat once again for Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar.

 

Over 67 per cent of voters exercised their franchise till 5pm on Tuesday and a historic turnout of 65.08 per cent was reported during the first phase of voting on November 6. Both the key alliances, the ruling NDA and Opposition Mahagathbandhan, believe the high voter turnout would work in their favour.

 

Exit polls suggest the NDA would achieve the majority mark of 122 seats in the 243-member assembly comfortably and form a government again in Bihar. According to poll of exit polls, on average, the NDA will win close to 150 seats, the Mahagathbandhan could win about 90 seats, and others could win two to five seats.

 

In the 2020 assembly polls, the JD(U) won only 43 seats and the BJP won 74. However, going by the alliance's arrangement, Nitish Kumar was made the chief minister of the alliance. Though Kumar severed ties and joined Mahagathbandhan for a brief period, he joined hands with NDA again before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Interestingly, Kumar played an important role in forming the Opposition INDIA bloc at the national level during the Lok Sabha polls.

 

Known for switching alliances in the blink of an eye, it needs to be seen whether the BJP would accommodate Kumar's demands once again if it falls behind in seat tally. Notably, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union  Home Minister Amit Shah were the main faces of the NDA's campaign in Bihar this election. 

 

More than in Bihar, alliance with JD(U) is crucial for the BJP at the Centre. The BJP, which managed to win only 240 seats in the 2024 polls, managed to return to power with the support of the Telugu Desam Party and JD(U). If Kumar walks out of the NDA alliance again, it could also mean an abrupt end to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's successive reign at the Centre.

 

According to P-Marq, the JD(U) will win 62-72 seats, and the BJP will emerge as major party in NDA, winning 68-78 seats. Matrize's exit poll has predicted 65-73 seats for the BJP and 67-75 seats for the JD(U). Another pollster, People's Insight, says the BJP will win 68-72 seats and JD(U) will win 55-60 seats. 

India