An upswing in India-Afghanistan relations

K N Pandita

knp627@gmail.com

Amir Khan Muttaqi, the foreign minister of Afghanistan, who was recently on a week-long visit to New Delhi along with his delegation, is the only Taliban Afghan minister exempted by the US from a ban on foreign travel of Taliban leaders.

Islamabad and Washington are both rattled by the visit. The CIA and ISI, the old comrades, wonder what is cooking in New Delhi. Something is definitely cooking.

Trump has added a new chapter to the guidebook of international diplomacy.If there is a country or a regime that he dislikes and would dismantle, he takes its enemies and detractors on board, talks to them in a side room of the White House where no media persons or photographers are allowed, and no press statements are released. By doing so, the White House is turned into a house of sordid intrigues. This is the 21st century’s colonial culture.

Once, Count Bismarck of Germany is said to have made a cryptic remark: ” I have broken the protocol of diplomacy by telling the truth”.

Trump wants the Bagram airport in Afghanistan. For what? Around September 10, approximately 120 US Army and Air Force personnel landed in Chattogram (formerly Chittagong) via a US-Bangla Airlines flight from Dhaka. A US Air Force C-130J Super Hercules aircraft also landed at Shah Amanat International Airport, reportedly with over 100 troops and ammunition.

They are doing a series of joint exercises held throughout 2025, including Exercise Tiger Lightning and Exercise Tiger Shark. This increased military activity has followed the CIA and ISI jointly sponsored removal of the India-friendly elected government of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024.

The Chittagong military base will strengthen the US surveillance over the Strait of Malacca and the Far East. A power with control over Bagram airport canmonitor a vast Asian landmass from Iran to India, China to the Caspian Sea and the entire West Asia and the Gulf region.

The role which the CIA had assigned to Yunus in Bangladeshin August 2024 was repeated presumptuously for the capture of Bagram air base. A sequence of events that occurred in succession will reinforce the point.

Saudi-Pak defence agreement is signed to assure the Saudi monarch of security(including nuclear) to neutralize any threat from Iran in case Iran opposes occupation of Bagram air base by the Americans; hypocrisy of hosting private dinner to the new found love in the White House; transfer of advanced weapons of war to Saudi Arabia and simultaneously shipment of existing second generation arms with Saudi to Pakistan; turning away from Pakistan’s aggressive designs against Taliban particularly not rejecting Pakistan’s air attacks at several places in Afghanistan this week, escalation of military activities on Pak – Afghan international border’ the US vetoing India’s membership in the SC; overnight up ranking Pakistani army chief to the displeasure of many Generals of Pakistan army.

All these developments taking shape within a short span of time clearly show that the US wants Pakistan to seize Bagram air base for her. Washington is overtly and covertly committed to playing a crucial role but not coming to the forefront.

The secret meeting between the Pakistani army chief and Trump essentially centred around how Pakistan could play a vital role in winning Bagram airport for it. This analysis also provides a vital clue to the mystery of a sudden ceasefire in India’s four-day missile war against Pakistan. The disclosures of heavy damage to the Nur Khan nuclear base deeply exasperated the American deep state. That is the reason why the American aeroplane carrying not the diplomats or the relief workers but technocrats, engineers and scientists arrived to examine the level of damage done by Indian air strikes on Pakistan’s nuclear assets. Why did the American air force plane land at Nur Khan airport if it carried relief material?

The point is that India needs to be realistic in perceiving serious security and strategic challenges in the region. Presuming that the rumour of India agreeing to pass on Brahmos-400 to Kabul is true, it would be a bold and effective strategic response to American hegemony. The US is very actively patronising Pakistan as its strategic arm against the Taliban and India in the subcontinent.

So far, only Russia has officially recognised the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. India is likely to follow suit. She has agreed to upgrade her mission in Kabul to the status of a regular embassy. The two sides are confident that India will provide the necessary infrastructure to Afghanistan. However, the common sense is that both countries play a low role in disclosing what they like and dislike. The Taliban leadership felt the necessity of issuing political statements of a critical nature.

The situation also demands that RIC take note of the American deep state’s designs in Afghanistan. The ground situation also demands that both Afghanistan and India carefully re-examine their Iran policy. In case of breaking out multi-sided hostilities (Pakistan – Saudi -US-Turkey are arrayed against Afghanistan – India -Russia(China clinging to neutrality).The outcome of the imagined clash will be indecisive for many obvious reasons; nevertheless, the one positive result will be that Afghanistan will never become the second Bangladesh.

Strategically, India may consider liaising with the TTP and BLA command. Kashmir is not outside this political chessboard of the Indian subcontinent.

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