Bihar triumph fuels BJP's West Bengal ambitions: Can Modi conquer Mamata Banerjee's turf?
With a stellar performance in the Bihar elections, both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the National Democratic Alliance overall have performed better since the 2020 assembly elections. This has provided a boost to the BJP, with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav and the Mahagathbandhan’s dreams of winning Bihar relegated to the backseat. The NDA is now eyeing West Bengal next, in the 2026 assembly elections.
“The results have inspired the (BJP) workers in Bengal. All three states are linked. We have conquered Odisha and Bihar; now it is Bengal. If you analyse the result of the Bihar elections, my view is that people are voting for the BJP. People are trying to stop the comeback of the 'jungle raj'. So this time, people will eradicate the jungle raj from Bengal," said BJP MP Sukanta Majumdar.
“The choice is very clear. We saw how the state was ruled during Lalu Prasad Yadav’s regime, women were abducted and raped. There was complete lawlessness. There was murder. That was a dark age of Bihar," said BJP Asansol MLA Agnimitra Paul. Echoing Majumdar's views, Paul confidently said that the BJP will capture battleground Bengal in 2026, speaking in the context of the lawlessness which, she believes, has gripped Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s state. “The same thing that was happening there (Bihar), is happening in Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal," added Paul.
“So it is very clear that the people of Bihar do not want to go back to Lalu Prasad’s regime. Tejaswi ji, you, the son of Lalu Yadav, you have the same ideology, so people will never vote for you. People have seen two terms how NDA has worked, Narendra Modi is taking India forward. The choice is very clear, not only for Bihar, but for Bengal," Agnimitra Paul spoke while drawing comparisons between the law and order situation in the two neighbouring states.
However, political analysts who are closely tracking West Bengal elections are not very confident of the BJP sweeping West Bengal, given that in both states, the electorate has voted for pro-incumbency. “We should keep in mind that NDA was in power in Bihar and Nitish Kumar was the chief minister, and people have voted for the pro-incumbent, if we look at past results. The same is true for West Bengal. The support goes for the incumbent," said Udayan Bandyopadhyay.
“The results of Bihar have given them (BJP) confidence. However, organizationally in West Bengal, the BJP is not at par with Bihar, as the NDA was in power and has got administrative support. Here in Bengal, Trinamool Congress (TMC) is in power and has got support because it is the incumbent. In order to change the scenario, it is a long process of struggle, and the election results in other states do not affect them (TMC)," explained Bandhopadhyay, suggesting that to play the anti-incumbency card and win voter confidence to oust the TMC is next to impossible.
The Left front was in power in West Bengal for 34 years until 2011, when TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee’s anti-land acquisition movement in Singur against the setting up of Tata Nana car factory in 997 acres of multicrop farmland and the SEZ in Nandigram propelled her party to power. Three terms later, the TMC is confident of making a comeback again in their turf with their pro-people policies and diversity factor, which is Mamata’s trump card.
BJP’s hindutva factor and pro-industry chant might have won the mind space of many Bengal voters, including the urban populace, however, with a rural population of nearly 70 per cent in West Bengal, the TMC has consolidated their space at the grassroots level. It is a herculean task for the BJP to shake up and sweep the carpet from under the feet of the ruling TMC to turn it into a saffron bastion. The TMC has gained a 48 per cent vote share, while the BJP gained 38 per cent vote share.
Will Bihar’s results make the BJP adopt a different strategy to win West Bengal and to gain a majority vote share is the big question.
India