Eight months into transition, Bangladesh and the interim government have realised that change is not easy

DHAKA

 

Yunus is a dreamer,” says Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, secretary general of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. They have been friends since their days at Dhaka University, and a portrait of the two, taken in their youth, hangs in Alamgir’s living room. It is a testament to a bond forged in the fervour of campus life and tempered by the demands of politics. “Even back then, Yunus was a thinker,” he says. “Our paths have crossed again and I think he means well for the country.”

 

The elders are now guiding the vision for Bangladesh 2.0 even as a generation unburdened by the cynicism of the past is pushing for a new political landscape where there is political freedom and a new nationalist spirit. The BNP has emerged as the largest political force following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. The National Citizen Party (NCP)―born out of the July 2024 regime change―and the Jamaat-e-Islami complete the current political triad. Though the NCP was the one that brought about the forced regime change, it needs constructive goals, political depth and grassroots presence to clean up the perceived ills of the previous governments―an entrenched network of political patronage that has expanded across government, bureaucracy, business and even the judiciary.

 

“This model has enabled a vast distribution of state favours, not as a result of lobbying or traditional rent-seeking, but through top-down allocation of benefits in return for political loyalty over the years,” says Dr Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, professor of economics in Dhaka University’s department of development studies. The old and new generations agree that youth-led political movements hold long-term promise and act as a pressure valve for a society that resists authoritarian tendencies. This was the primary sentiment that drove mainstream political parties, writers, artists and members of the civil society to join students on the streets during the protests.

 

“They are inexperienced, yes, but Gen Z supports them,” says Rezaul Karim Rony, writer and political commentator. “If they stay committed to pro-democracy values, their future could be bright.”

 

The dust has settled after the July violence and the air is slowly getting heavy with the tensions of navigating a forced transition. Before fatigue sets in with the eight-month-old interim government, Yunus, its chief adviser, has the crucial task of ensuring that the promises of reform are not used as a pretext to delay elections.

 

It is equally important for him to discredit the growing perception that certain ideologies within the cabinet and outside are pushing a conservative agenda.

 

“Behind the scenes, a handful of advisers is driving the agenda,” says Zillur Rahman, executive director of the Centre for Governance Studies in Dhaka. The perceived rise of right-wing forces worries him. “Some extremists seem aligned with the ruling camp,” he warns. “This government is neither neutral nor transitional―it is political, and it is backing the newly formed NCP.”

 

The recent death of Bhabesh Chandra Roy, the Hindu leader in Bangladesh, has only added to the worries of the Yunus administration. “The killing follows a pattern of systematic persecution of Hindu minorities under the interim government even as the perpetrators of previous such events roam with impunity,” said Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson in the Indian external affairs ministry.

 

There is also worry about the safety of women on the streets. Shamaruh Mirza, Alamgir’s daughter, admits that while she is concerned, she also has hope. “We haven’t stopped raising our voice against the far-right forces,” she says. “As long as people continue to speak up and push back, there is still a chance to protect and strengthen those rights.”

 

Lines blur when uncertainty grips a country, and the current atmosphere is troubling people. “We have instances where things did go wrong, but that doesn’t mean it is a crazy country that kills each other, kills their people,” Yunus told THE WEEK in an exclusive interview. “That’s not Bangladesh.”

 

One of the reasons the violence in the past eight months has not created much public outrage is that the July protests showed the Hasina regime in such poor light.

 

“People from all sections of society, cutting across social, cultural and religious lines, came out during the uprising,” says Mahfuz Alam, adviser for information and broadcasting in Bangladesh. “It was like the Arab Spring often dubbed as the Facebook revolution. Do you remember the poem, ‘The Revolution Will Not Be Televised?’ In this digital era, revolution is being televised every time you do something. Social media makes a huge impact. Our diaspora around the world took part in the uprising.”

 

Internet shutdowns and police crackdowns did not dampen the rage of the youth, he says. “And this is not a bubble [of privileged people] that was created by the previous (Hasina) regime. These are ordinary students who started [the protests] asking for a regular job and a happy life.”

 

When the interim government took charge, expectations were sky-high. Eight months later, though, a realisation is creeping in that it might take longer than expected to reform the entire system. Governance remains weak as reforms get underway, the economy is unstable as political uncertainty is making investors nervous, and law and order has deteriorated after the policing system collapsed and left the army playing the role of guardian.

 

Fingers are crossed in hope that the interim government speedily rolls out the national charter of reforms before elections are scheduled. The basket of reforms is overflowing―constitution, elections, police and judiciary, to name a few.

 

“Transitions are always uncertain, especially democratic ones,” says professor Ali Riaz, vice-chairman of the National Consensus Commission, which is carrying out a consultation process for building the national charter. “Everyone wants a better future. There will be challenges, but we see more prospects. The best way to avoid unrest is to improve, listen and ensure that all voices feel heard.

 

“The Consensus Commission is engaged in conversations with 12 political parties, including the BNP. We are focusing on areas of divergence and partial agreement, trying to understand their arguments and explain the basis of our 166 recommendations.”

 

The first round of talks with political parties is expected to conclude by mid-May, followed by a second round, if necessary, with the commission’s tenure ending in mid-July. “The primary concern among political parties is the concentration of power in the prime minister’s office,” said Riaz. “Over the years, amendments have weakened institutions instead of strengthening them.”

 

The Consensus Commission plans to gather inputs from the public through websites and civil society interactions to ensure that the changes are truly reflective of the people’s will. This is “not just an election cycle”, says Riaz, who sees this as an opportunity to rebuild Bangladesh as a democratic, accountable state―a promise made at independence.

 

But this road to reform will be long, and in that time the country could plunge into unrest again. A fresh cycle of protests can happen in three scenarios, says Asif Bin Ali, a political analyst and doctoral fellow at Georgia State University. First, if student leaders who participated in the protests―now part of NCP or the interim government―are not satisfied with the structure or pace of reforms and want the elections to be delayed. Second, if the BNP demands early elections and prompts its cadres to hit the streets. Third, if the Awami League works at a subterranean level to make a comeback to the election process. “In all three scenarios, the role of the Jamaat will also be watched closely,” says Ali. “With its strong history and roots, it continues to remain a disciplined but marginalised force with limited national political influence in the country.” This, he says, could prompt it to explore an electoral understanding with other parties to grab the opposition space.

 

If the BNP returns to power, post-election divisions and power struggles seem inevitable.

 

Experts feel the real challenge for Bangladesh will be the creation of an opposition space―which has been missing for long―to prevent the concentration of power with the ruling party.

 

Zillur says the BNP has shown signs of maturity, having stayed out of power for three terms consecutively. “They’ve kept a distance from the Jamaat-e-Islami. They want liberal democratic politics now,” he says.

 

Political analyst Zahed Ur Rahman says the Jamaat is trying to project closeness with the BNP when there is none. “The BNP doesn’t need the Jamaat right now,” he says. “Their (Jamaat) vote share is only 3 to 5 per cent.”

 

Bangladesh’s electoral history speaks of four elections that have been widely accepted by the people―1991, (June) 1996, and 2001 and 2008. “The rest were compromised,” says Rahman. As for the upcoming polls, he warns, “If there’s no real contest, there will be no real legitimacy. A passive fight is no fight.”

 

While the BNP initially supported the interim setup, it is beginning to feel that this government wants to stay in power beyond its mandate. As for the Awami League, which has largely been excluded from the political process, Zillur feels its silence could hurt its future prospects. “They’re still a major party with grassroots strength,” he says. “But they need to open channels of dialogue or risk becoming irrelevant.”

 

While the pro-election sentiment cannot be ignored for long, the question is whether the political system is ready for a free and fair election. The NCP, for instance, is not ready to jump into elections as it feels the political system favours mainstream political parties. Moreover, the vast rural stretches outside Dhaka are yet to experience the new party. The NCP might have become a rage among the intelligentsia and social media, but it is yet to create a leadership that can get support during elections. The young party also has to be mindful that its entry into politics is not backed by either a popular demand or by state structures, including the Yunus administration.

 

“This is the first time I am joining a political platform, so the decision was not easy,” says Tasnim Jara, senior joint member secretary of the NCP. “However, I have found many intelligent, thoughtful and honest individuals in the party who have made extraordinary sacrifices to realise the aspirations of an uprising.” Jara, however, warns her party against corruption. “Youngsters are vulnerable to the trappings of power as they are developing their ethical compass. The focus of our party is on internal accountability and ensuring that we are able to understand that legitimacy in politics comes from integrity and public service rather than the display of power.”

 

The NCP makes no bones about utilising the experience of the older generation who form part of its advisory council and strategic leadership. “We are young and energetic but at the same time we need to tap into the experience of our elders, but not accept their ideas uncritically and vice versa,” says Jara.

 

In the post-Hasina era, even all-powerful parties like the BNP say that political transition will only be successful if they are able to grow out of the cycle of power being consolidated in any one political party.

 

“To move towards democracy, we need elections where people can express their views and choose their own representatives, and that can happen once crucial election-related structural reforms take place. All other reforms should be carried out by the elected government with a public mandate,” says Mahdi Amin, adviser to BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman.

 

The BNP is putting pressure on the interim government to provide a roadmap for the elections. It has also carefully aligned its internal and external approach to become an acceptable face in the region where interests of Bangladesh cannot be detached from India’s concerns.

 

“The India-Bangladesh relationship has gone through many phases,” says Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, BNP standing committee member. “The water-sharing issues, border killings and tariff barriers have been sticking points. Now it is misinformation. The relationship needs to have mutual respect, mutual interest and non-interference in internal affairs.” While for India its national security interests are paramount in the relationship, Dhaka seems to be supporting multilateralism over a country-centric approach.

 

However, recent visits of Chinese and Pakistani delegations have turned irritants for India. “If you obstruct the water here, it will find its level somewhere else,” says Chowdhury. “So economics and trade is exactly the same.”

 

Almost all political parties in Bangladesh want a long-term partnership with India. After all, as Amin explains, “Bangladesh wants to form a long-term and reciprocal partnership with India, built on trust, fairness and justice. It should be a collective interest to stand for the reflection of the aspiration of people, and create multifaceted ties.”

 

Amin says Bangladesh’s intrinsic makeup is pro-democracy. “The people want to see a tolerant society where they are treated in a dignified way and exercise their voting rights,” he says. “Where no one humiliates anybody or resorts to political vengeance. The people of Bangladesh fought hard for democracy. We should uphold that spirit and ensure freedoms and rights for all.”

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