Avoid strike against Pakistan. It could escalate into war

THE terrorist attack near Pahalgam took the Indian security and Intelligence apparatus by surprise. Abrogation of Article 370 and the ever-increasing flow of tourists to the Valley seemed to have conveyed to the Indian government that it had finally resolved the Kashmir problem, even as terrorist activities had merely shifted to other areas of J and K.

The flood of tourists in the Valley brought prosperity to the local population: from hotels, houseboats, shikaras and pony owners to labourers and shopkeepers. All this resulted in a marked change in the attitude of the local Valley residents towards the rest of India. It led to a somewhat drying up of support to cross-border terrorism in the Valley.

To deal with this new development and to draw Indian agencies’ attention away from it, Pakistan shifted terrorist activities to areas south of the Pirpanjal range, Jammu and Kishtwar region. This resulted in some laxity on the part of security and intelligence agencies in the Valley, thus giving Pakistan the opportunity to stage the attack at Pahalgam, killing 25 tourists and one local man and injuring many others. Appropriate action must be initiated against those responsible for this lapse.

The aim of targeting tourists was to discourage them from coming to the Valley and its consequent impact on the newfound avenue of prosperity for the people of Kashmir. It was expected that the resultant drop in the income of people of the Valley would once again bring back their helpful attitude towards terrorists.

The terrorist attack has caused widespread anger in India and led to demands for a strong retaliation. However, the Pahalgam attack should not be permitted to become an anti-Muslim stance within India. The government has taken a number of steps at the diplomatic level against Pakistan, which, in turn, have been reciprocated with similar action.

The more effective step on the part of India is putting the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on hold. This issue has been repeatedly projected in these columns — that Pakistan must be warned that any terrorist attack on the Indian soil would result in the abrogation of the ITW. After all, treaties and terrorism cannot cohabit. Unfortunately, the Centre India never grasped the essence of this one tool with which it could dissuade Pakistan from carrying on with cross-border terrorism.

Holding in abeyance the IWT requires the conversion of the Salal Dam back to storage dam (it was recently converted from storage dam to run-of-the river dam after Pakistan raised this issue with the World Bank). To start with, stop the flow of waters from it till the dam is filled. In this, India will have to stop the operation of turbines which generate electricity. Once the dam is filled, release the waters such that it adversely impacts agriculture in the Pakistan areas that are dependent on these waters. Also, control the flow of the waters of the Jhelum and its tributary, the Neelam river.

As a long-term plan, the waters of the Chenab river (known as Chandrabhaga in Himachal Pradesh) can be diverted into the Beas river in the Kullu Valley. Also, construct mini-dams on the Indus river and its tributaries to generate electricity and irrigate the barren stretches of land in the surrounding valleys. At the same time, prevent the flow of waters from the eastern rivers (Beas, Sutlej and Ravi) by replacing faulty sluice gates at various canal headworks.

Following the Pahalgam attack, Prime Minister Modi cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia. Soon after landing, he held an emergency meeting at the airport itself, followed by the Cabinet Committee on Security meeting in New Delhi.

Thereafter, instead of going to the Kashmir Valley, he went to Bihar to address an election rally, where he talked of India taking a very strong retaliatory action against Pakistan.

Given these developments and the general angst in India, the demand for a strong kinetic action against Pakistan is being projected. These developments have put Pakistan at full alert along the LoC and the International Border with India. Possibly, Pakistan has pulled back some of its troops deployed against Afghanistan and Balochistan and redeployed them on its eastern front against India.

The Army is short of over one lakh personnel. There is a large deployment of troops in Eastern Ladakh against China. The Indian Air Force is down to 32 squadrons, with a good many overdue for replacement. Some squadrons are deployed along the northern and eastern borders as well.

Any attack across the International Border or the Line of Control in J&K could easily conflagrate into a larger conflict and, in the worst case, a full-scale war.

There may be some misconception in Pakistan that China would come to its aid. Such hope is completely misplaced. At the very best, China may supply some military equipment and limited cyber support and show some movement of troops in Eastern Ladakh to prevent India from pulling out some troops for deployment against Pakistan. It need expect nothing more from China. China knows that any added involvement in Pakistan would go against its own interest. Because of the tariff war with the US, India is the only other major market for its exports.

Any action by India at the scale of the ‘surgical strike’ or ‘Balakot air strike’ will not dissuade Pakistan from carrying on with its policy of a “thousand cuts" against India.

Any enhanced action by India across the border has its own implications, with the possibility of an escalation of the conflict into a war-like situation or, maybe, war itself.

Given the situation, India’s better option is to further secure its borders with Pakistan and be prepared to effectively deal with any mischief by Pakistan across the IB or the LoC.

Holding the IWT in abeyance and going ahead with other connected steps is enough to make Pakistan give up its policy of a thousand cuts against India and come to live with the present split of J & K, between India and Pakistan.

Going by the PM’s speech at the election rally in Bihar and given the previous record, where the ‘Balakot strike’ was played out during the elections that followed, a major strike against Pakistan could surface. Such a step in response to the Pahalgam massacre needs to be avoided.

The withholding of the Indus Waters Treaty should have been enough to make Pakistan realise that the best course for it is to stop fomenting terrorism and focus on its economic progress. Good relations with India will work in the best interests of Pakistan.

Lt Gen Harwant Singh (Retd) is former Deputy Chief of Army Staff.

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