'Operation Sindoor is the trailer': Analyst explains how Indian strikes tell Pakistan that terror attacks are 'tripwire' situations

Through Operation Sindoor, which saw India strike over nine terror targets inside Pakistan, India seeks to establish a doctrine that underlines that it was Pakistan which initiated a military conflict against India by carrying out a terror attack, according to an analyst.

Operation Sindoor seeks to create a tripwire situation regarding escalation, according to Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of disarmament studies at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.

He argues that India has now put the onus on Pakistan to ensure there would be no terrorist attack if it wanted to prevent a military conflict. The airstrikes prove that any terror attack, in all probability, will result in a conventional military response. "In other words, the starting point of India-Pakistan escalation is not the Indian use of conventional force, but the Pakistani use of subconventional force. India has put the ball in Pakistan’s court on future escalation. Op Sindoor is the trailer," he argued.

According to the analyst, the mission is also a prelude to India's future handling of terrorism, which seeks to establish a 'military response to terrorist attacks' doctrine.

Jacob argues that low-level military actions (like 2016 and 2019) may not be the preferred response any longer. He also points out how Operation Sindoor sought to show that India wouldn't accept that there is a fundamental distinction between subconventional (terrorism) and conventional (military) aggression. 

"Pakistan has traditionally exploited this distinction to paint a doomsday escalatory scenario to prevent the Indian military response to terror attacks. If India doesn’t accept that distinction any longer, Pakistan’s ability to exploit that space to carry out/allow/do nothing about terror attacks against India no longer exists," he said.

Another important facet of Operation Sindoor is that it challenged Pakistan's refusal to accept the space between conventional and nuclear domains, which meant that India would not be able to undertake conventional military options without worrying about Pakistani tactical nuclear weapons. "Op Sindoor calls both the bluff: It removes the space between subconventional and conventional aggression; and given that there was little nuclear talk in 2019 or now, it has called the nuclear bluff too. Pakistan can no longer depend on nuclear threats to deter Indian conventional attacks in response to subconventional aggression," he argues.

India also wanted to reinstate deterrence against terrorism, which was established by the 2019 Balakot strikes. This deterrence was ruptured by Pahalgam, and there have not been any high-intensity terror attacks since the Pulwama terror attack. "In Indian thinking, the Balakot air attacks deterred Pakistan from carrying out or allowing terrorist attacks against India thereafter. The Pahalgam attack undid the deterrence established in 2019. In that sense, Operation Sindoor is an attempt to reinstate deterrence against terrorism as achieved by the Balakot strikes," the analyst added.

Defence