India saw lower excess mortality in 2020-21 than western countries

Official sources in the government have noted that India’s excess mortality rate in 2020 and 2021 was lower than several Western countries.

Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths observed beyond the number of expected deaths during a crisis. In India, excess mortality in 2020-21 stood at 9.3 percent, while it was 17.6 percent in the US, 11.8 percent in Italy and 11.6 percent in the UK, they stated.

The official sources further clarified that all excess deaths as reflected in the newly released ‘Civil Registration System (CRS)-2021 report’ could not be attributed to Covid-19.

They pointed out that the number of deaths documented in the CRS had been increasing over time, even in the years preceding the outbreak of Covid-19 in the country in 2020.

However, unlike other years, the Sample Registration Survey (SRS) did not mention the crucial ‘expected deaths’ section in its report. This baseline number is crucial to calculate the percentage of excess deaths.

The excess mortality, as per officials, could also include unreported Covid-19 deaths, as well as deaths due to other causes and possible indirect effects of Covid-19.

Sources said the annual increase in deaths registered in the CRS could also be attributed to several reasons — including a larger population cohort, maturing reporting processes and increased awareness about the need for registration, leading to higher registration levels.

This trend has been further accentuated over the years by the mandatory requirement for death certificates in regards to pension schemes, social security benefits and property issues. Covid-19 death compensation also required death certification, prompting registration under the CRS.

An official explained: “Our teams conducted preliminary analyses of the CRS data to assess cumulative excess deaths in the years 2020 and 2021. Based on the three year (2016-19) annual rate of increase of 6.42 percent, the expected number of deaths would be 81,31,869 and 86,54,185 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The observed deaths were 81,15,882 in 2020 and 10,224,506 in 2021. Excess deaths — defined as observed deaths minus expected deaths — were 15,987 and 15,70,321.”

“Therefore, the total expected deaths over a two-year period would be 15,54,334, which is 9.3% higher than the expected deaths. This translated to 1,249 excess deaths per one million population,” added the official.

Meanwhile, excess mortality for this period was 29.9 percent in Russia. However, three major nations with lower excess mortality were France (6.7%), Germany (5.3%) and Canada (5.2%).

The deaths due to Covid-19 happened during the three-year period from 2020-2022. However, the CRS data for 2022 is not yet available. “When we get the data of 2022, we will get to know the full picture of the death toll of the pandemic,” officials said.

Notably, Covid-19 was the second leading cause of death in 2021, and the third leading cause in 2020, the report said.

India