India-Pakistan tensions: Missile war possibly averted, ceasefire announced and violated; the real war is far from over

The past few days brought the Indian subcontinent to the brink of catastrophe. Pakistan-sponsored terrorists killed 26 innocent Hindus in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. India retaliated in every possible way, from withdrawing the Indus Water Treaty to exposing Pakistan on international platforms, followed by military strikes on terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan itself, shaking the very foundation of the hostile neighbour.

However, Pakistan dared to attack India and used swarm drones, missiles and heavy shelling on the Line of Control (LoC). India again retaliated and, according to defence sources, damaged multiple air bases. While India and Pakistan were on the path to full-fledged war, Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) called India’s DGMO seeking a ceasefire. Though Donald Trump, President of the United States of America (USA), claimed a role in initiating ceasefire talks, India firmly stated it was Pakistan that sought the ceasefire.

However, within hours of announcing the ceasefire, Pakistan violated it and attacked India with drones in multiple cities. India’s statement asking Pakistan to take appropriate steps to address the violations and deal with the situation with seriousness and responsibility showcased that India is maintaining its position and not violating the ceasefire to retaliate, as of now.

The aim of the ceasefire was to achieve de-escalation of the war-like situation between India and Pakistan, and it highly depends on the actions of Pakistan. India maintaining restraint points towards efforts at de-escalation, but anyone mistaking this for stability in the region is dangerously naïve. Pakistan, for some reason, has a habit of poking India repeatedly to the point where India retaliates with its might. As soon as India shows its prowess, Pakistan runs towards Western countries for shelter.

Even now, after agreeing to a ceasefire, Pakistan’s habit of poking India is not under control. The war continues, only now it has expanded from the battlefield to a far murkier theatre: global perception.

The real war – narrative and misinformation

Pakistan did not waste a second before launching its predictable propaganda machine after violating the ceasefire. While its army spokesperson cooked up fantastical claims that India had struck its own cities, especially Amritsar, a day before, the Prime Minister of Pakistan issued a video statement late at night on 10 May claiming victory against India.

Its propaganda machines worked, and citizens of Pakistan celebrated the fabricated victory. Not to forget, Pakistan’s statement suggesting India hit Amritsar was to create chaos among Sikhs and push them towards the idea of Khalistan, a Pakistani-backed propaganda seeking a separate Sikh nation.

To utter shock, some Western and Chinese media outlets uncritically echoed the pro-Pakistan narrative, claiming it shot down Indian fighter jets including Rafale, that an Indian female pilot was captured in Pakistan, that its air force destroyed Indian military bases, and more. Despite its obvious absurdity, Pakistan’s narrative is being pushed on international forums just to satisfy some perverse fantasies against India.

This is not new. For decades, Pakistan has thrived on manipulating gullible global commentators, not only in Western media but also in Indian media. Pakistan has played the “victim card” for far too long while riding on the shoulders of such narratives. What is new, and worrying, is how India’s narrative response remains largely reactive.

Official briefings were correct; however, there was an early vacuum in global messaging. India cannot continue to play catch-up in a world where misinformation spreads faster than facts. The Indian government needs to come up with a much stronger plan to re-evaluate its narrative strategies and evolve with the pace of information sharing.

India is an emerging global power, and that status demands information dominance. Think tanks, diaspora voices, and credible media allies are not enough to set the narrative. India must establish a more aggressive and permanent ecosystem, which the ruling party seriously lacks. Bharatiya Janata Party won the 2014 election, and a strong social media presence with narrative-setting capabilities played a crucial role. However, the BJP-led NDA government seems to be lagging behind in enhancing its ecosystem with time. We cannot allow hostile players to define our motives, our actions, or our restraint. And, mind you, these hostile players are present inside India as well.

PM Modi’s leadership under scrutiny, but essential

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s towering global image and record of decisive action in 2016 and 2019 still command public trust. It is this very trust that brought India precious diplomatic space during this crisis. However, it would be dishonest to ignore the undercurrent of frustration among his domestic support base at such a crucial time. India’s last night response is being seen as more of a muted response against the hostile neighbour, which is not good.

There is a fine line between strategic restraint and perceived indecisiveness, and it is dangerous. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image has always been bold, and people expect unambiguous action from him. This time, however, the calculus seems to have prioritised avoiding global escalation. The reason remains unknown. India appeared ready to respond with overwhelming force, which was clear from PM Modi’s statement during an event in Bihar. However, something changed in the past 24 hours which has rattled the sentiments of the general public.

It is understandable that global escalation would affect India in the long run and the Indian government is aiming at a bigger picture, but it is also a fact that deterrence has diminishing returns if the enemy feels no real pain. India had just started. If more pain is not inflicted in the next few days, or even months, Pakistan will develop a strategy to use its armed forces, terrorist groups, and terrorist-linked sleeper cells against India.

There is no doubt that PM Modi needs our full support currently. However, it does not mean we should not seek definitive action from our leader. This is a moment for the nation to stand behind his leadership, while also demanding better institutional readiness and swifter, sharper narrative control.

What happens next – the short-term risks

Over the next few days, Pakistan’s desperation may lead to more provocations, especially unconventional ones like drone swarms, cyber intrusions, or staged “false flag” events designed to provoke a reaction. India must stay alert but unprovoked. On the same hand, diplomatic channels have to work overtime with key global players to ensure Pakistan cannot weaponise sympathy, as it has done several times in the past.

Behind the curtains, India has to continue upgrading its military capabilities. Vulnerable civilians must be protected and everything must be done to ensure that at a time of attack, they have ample options to stay safe. Military installations need to be increased and upgraded to ensure excessive drone or missile intrusions can be neutralised. Not to forget, Pakistan used dozens of swarm drones in a short span, showing it can escalate such attacks.

It is similar to what Israel is facing. The number of missile attacks on Israel reaches such a level that its famous “Iron Dome” air defence system sometimes gets overwhelmed. This is what Pakistan seems to be trying to achieve and India has to be vigilant, and I am sure defence experts in the government are on it.

The long game – what India must fix in the next 12 months

The next one year must focus on three critical pillars:

• First, operational dominance. India must further upgrade border defences, air grids, and civilian security infrastructure with urgency.
• Second, narrative dominance. India has to create a permanent international communications architecture. From embassies to international media houses and top influencers, every global audience must hear India’s version first in their native language, not last.
• Third, diplomatic offensive. India must take the battle to Pakistan on international platforms on its own, instead of playing defensive and answering only when Islamabad pokes New Delhi. Whether it’s FATF, UN forums, or G20 corridors, if Pakistan is raised as a topic of discussion, India must continue to expose Pakistan’s duplicity and support for terrorism. India must expose Islamabad’s terror ecosystem and duplicity offensively, not defensively.

Winning the narrative war is important, but winning the actual war matters more

A final word of caution. While India must build a strong international communication machine to push its narrative, it is essential that its people do not get consumed by the illusion that “narrative victory” also secures national survival. India is in a much stronger position compared to the pre-2014 era but must strengthen further. No nation has ever won a war just because it convinced CNN or BBC to like it.

Take the example of Israel. Its ambassadors are heckled globally. Its leadership is targeted by international courts, and every media outlet from New York to London glorifies Hamas as resistance heroes while vilifying the only democracy in the region. Yet, Israel survives, thrives and wins. It is not because the world applauds. It is because the people of Israel stand united behind the Israeli state and its military strength.

The same holds for Russia. Despite unprecedented Western sanctions, propaganda campaigns and diplomatic isolation, Moscow has continued its lone fight in Ukraine, a country which is supported by NATO. Russia is standing tall only because its leadership and people remained aligned on national survival at any cost. Whether or not you agree with their decisions, Russia has shown the world that survival depends on resolve, not approval. We too stand with Russia’s and Israel’s right to defend their sovereign choices.

India must learn this fast. Pakistan will always be portrayed as the weak, unstable underdog in Western media narratives. Global elites will always mistrust an assertive Hindu-majority India. No amount of op-eds or press briefings will change that fundamental bias. Still, winning narratives is part of the broader war against the terrorist state that is Pakistan.

Winning the narrative is essential for diplomacy. But winning the actual war, be it at the border, in cyberspace, or on the economic front, must remain the top priority of the PM Modi-led Indian government. And for that, there is an immediate need for an unshakeable bond between the state and its people.

The endless online rants and internal pessimism must be countered systematically and effectively. Claim the victory for what it is: a powerful nuclear state with a professional armed force neutralising an enemy provocation. Stop expecting applause from those who fundamentally despise your very existence.

The coming days, the next phase of the India-Pakistan war, is going to test the unity between the people of India and the government. If India is prepared to stand together – government, armed forces and citizens – it can ensure that both the narrative and the real war end in nothing less than victory on all fronts.

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