Morgan Stanley Raises Sensex Target To 89,000 By June 2026; Here's Why

Global investment firm Morgan Stanley has raised its Sensex target to 89,000 by June 2026, projecting an 8 per cent gain from current market levels. The upward revision reflects the firm’s growing optimism about India’s economic trajectory, underpinned by robust fundamentals and an improving corporate earnings outlook.

Alongside the target upgrade, the brokerage has marginally increased its earnings per share (EPS) estimates, buoyed by a recent revision in India’s GDP growth forecast. The Sensex is now anticipated to trade at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.5 times, well above its 25-year historical average of 21 times. This premium, according to Morgan Stanley, is a reflection of enhanced investor confidence in India's macroeconomic stability and policy continuity.

The report identifies multiple structural strengths supporting India’s resilience, including a narrowing primary fiscal deficit, stable inflation trends, and a solid domestic investment cycle. These factors are expected to drive consistent earnings growth in the mid-to-high range over the next three to five years.

Private capital expenditure is picking up pace, corporate balance sheets are showing signs of significant improvement, and discretionary consumer demand remains strong—all of which point to a healthy economic cycle. The report also emphasised that Indian equity markets have remained stable despite external global pressures, thanks in part to sustained retail investor participation.

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Foreign Investor Allocation

Interestingly, foreign investor allocation to Indian equities is currently at a two-decade low. However, Morgan Stanley believes sentiment is beginning to shift, with early indicators suggesting renewed interest from global funds.

The Reserve Bank of India’s accommodative policy stance, stable crude oil prices, and a steady reform agenda are also contributing to positive market sentiment. Morgan Stanley further noted that India’s evolving geopolitical posture has boosted both national security and international investor confidence.

From a strategy standpoint, the firm expects the coming period to favor active stock selection. It maintains an overweight position on sectors such as financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials, while favoring domestic cyclical plays over defensive stocks.

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