‘A Billion Butterflies’ by Dr Jagadish Shukla: Weather it’s this or that
For most of us, checking the weather forecast is a mundane, almost instinctive, act. A quick glance at the phone or a corner of the newspaper tells us whether to pack an umbrella or plan a picnic. In ‘A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory’, Jagadish Shukla, a renowned climate scientist, pulls back the curtains, revealing the decades of intensive research, finance, technological resources and international cooperation that has made weather prediction models one of humanity’s most sophisticated scientific achievements.
Throughout the book, he skilfully interlaces his personal life with the broader history of meteorology. From humble beginnings in rural Uttar Pradesh, where his early encounters with monsoons sparked a lifelong passion for weather prediction, to his professional journey from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology to MIT, NASA and the George Mason University, each stop marks a leap in both his career as well as the field of meteorology.
He highlights how, until the late 20th century, reliable forecasts beyond 10 days was an unreachable goal, made possible only by deep research into dynamical seasonal prediction and the investments in a global array of satellites and supercomputers, now integral to modern meteorology. The anecdotes — from early telegraphed barometer readings to marathon coding sessions testing ocean atmosphere models — underscore how climate science has progressed by leaps and bounds.
We then move on to connecting the dots between this scientific quest and its tangible impact on human lives. Shukla demonstrates how advancements in weather and climate prediction directly contribute to our ability to manage resources, prepare for natural disasters and build more resilient societies.
The book’s title is a reference to the famous ‘butterfly effect’ in chaos theory — the notion that even the tiniest changes like a butterfly flapping its wings can cascade into massive impacts like causing a tornado, underscoring the unpredictability of natural forces. The author’s ‘billion butterfly experiment’, designed to probe the butterfly effect in atmospheric models, proved otherwise. It showed that large-scale factors like humidity and sea-surface temperature dominate weather systems in a predictable way, and even the metaphorical flutter of countless ‘butterflies’ cannot overturn forecasts.
The latter part of the book shifts attention to the current global discourse on climate change, looking at the rampant spread of misinformation clouding the scientific consensus. His role as a lead author for the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, offers a first-hand perspective on scientists’ struggles of communicating the truth in a polarised world, fighting against public scepticism and the malicious targeting by corporate and political actors.
In between all of this, the author recounts personal sacrifices — a strained marriage, estrangement from his children, and the death of his son — with an unflinching honesty. These moments humanise the often-abstract world of science, revealing the emotional costs of a life devoted to discovery. We also learn about his philanthropic pursuit of establishing a college in his village, providing education to 800 female students.
For those seeking to understand the science behind their everyday lives and the urgent climate challenges facing our planet, the book offers illumination, context and hope.
— The reviewer is an outdoor enthusiast and climate expert
Book Review